{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eae6fc1e-064d-4b78-a738-a96821883cdc", "symbol": "PMTA", "name": "PM Thoresen Asia Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.421, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.496, "architecture_energy": 38.815, "architecture_maturity": 7.479, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.65, "rotation_up": 18.86, "upward_expansion": 6.75, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 48.2, "downward_expansion": 77.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.543333, 9.562727, 9.643333, 9.699939 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.55, "trend_reference": 9.729854, "distance_from_trend": -0.018485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.069409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.854129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005208, "excess_performance": -0.197533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.108639, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8500, "relative_activity": 0.387509, "balance": 0.108639, "dry_up": 0.450194, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027789, "annualized_volatility": 0.128828, "from_high_reference": -0.081731, "from_low_reference": 0.138484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.729854, "fair_value_reference": 8.069409, "structural_low": 9.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.000697, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.086294, "worst_return": -0.09633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022406, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039604, "worst_return": -0.073395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020052, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024517, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.082069, "worst_return": -0.036697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.556667, 9.673636, 9.785405, 9.757204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 39245.0, "trend": 9.680485, "fair_value": 7.973328, "relative_strength": -11.634782, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.759144, "energy": 36.861839, "activity_lines": [ 9.56, 9.640909, 9.764808, 9.752914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.65, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 38205.0, "trend": 9.697686, "fair_value": 7.990287, "relative_strength": -14.595941, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.466372, "energy": 29.268563, "activity_lines": [ 9.586667, 9.624545, 9.748974, 9.750947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.7, "volume": 15100, "typical_volume": 36740.0, "trend": 9.713447, "fair_value": 8.006806, "relative_strength": -14.29572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.94029, "energy": 12.91735, "activity_lines": [ 9.63, 9.625455, 9.738551, 9.751096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.5, "volume": 18700, "typical_volume": 34120.0, "trend": 9.724094, "fair_value": 8.021535, "relative_strength": -16.639749, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.431268, "energy": 14.796344, "activity_lines": [ 9.596667, 9.595455, 9.710379, 9.737325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.5, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 30420.0, "trend": 9.726974, "fair_value": 8.037787, "relative_strength": -16.53981, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.120467, "energy": 29.534639, "activity_lines": [ 9.566667, 9.574545, 9.683571, 9.722868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.55, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 23820.0, "trend": 9.728414, "fair_value": 8.053344, "relative_strength": -14.805916, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.802619, "energy": 30.285641, "activity_lines": [ 9.553333, 9.567273, 9.663333, 9.71145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.55, "volume": 8500, "typical_volume": 21935.0, "trend": 9.729854, "fair_value": 8.069409, "relative_strength": -13.854129, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.495877, "energy": 38.81453, "activity_lines": [ 9.543333, 9.562727, 9.643333, 9.699939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }