{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaec6c1e-4ab3-484f-a1f9-546dd1c995aa", "symbol": "RLX", "name": "RLX Technology Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.156, "architecture_energy": 19.775, "architecture_maturity": 83.953, "architecture_confidence": 60.332, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.57, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 18.13, "deceleration": 46.34, "rotation_down": 20.44, "downward_expansion": 52.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.018, 1.986909, 2.017524, 2.067337 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.01, "trend_reference": 2.139298, "distance_from_trend": -0.06044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.945634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.527082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165975, "excess_performance": -0.2916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9328631, "relative_activity": 0.838378, "balance": 0.798079, "dry_up": 0.713956, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069767, "annualized_volatility": 0.264253, "from_high_reference": -0.259438, "from_low_reference": 0.142045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.139298, "fair_value_reference": 1.945634, "structural_low": 1.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053878, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.742575, "worst_return": -0.27027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027624, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065786, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.918518, "worst_return": -0.226804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.194336, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.151087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.598766, "worst_return": 0.08735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11855407.2, "trend": 2.150466, "fair_value": 1.939574, "relative_strength": -15.725338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.131552, "energy": 23.309782, "activity_lines": [ 1.994667, 1.974727, 2.028143, 2.084374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 7579906, "typical_volume": 11612283.75, "trend": 2.14361, "fair_value": 1.942575, "relative_strength": -16.667658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.791664, "energy": 19.956332, "activity_lines": [ 2.013333, 1.981273, 2.022762, 2.075957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.01, "volume": 9328631, "typical_volume": 11126996.4, "trend": 2.139298, "fair_value": 1.945634, "relative_strength": -19.527082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.156215, "energy": 19.774656, "activity_lines": [ 2.018, 1.986909, 2.017524, 2.067337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }