{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaf025e6-e59a-4d0b-b5b7-5146e5da6491", "symbol": "XLE3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Oil & Gas ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.04, "architecture_energy": 22.599, "architecture_maturity": 17.384, "architecture_confidence": 50.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.23, "rotation_up": 57.94, "upward_expansion": 39.39, "deceleration": 42.41, "rotation_down": 17.18, "downward_expansion": 16.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.921333, 12.211909, 12.347976, 12.560419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.51, "trend_reference": 12.358333, "distance_from_trend": 0.012272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.613928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.78213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140383, "excess_performance": 0.089148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010854, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.157821, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.242786, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3721, "relative_activity": 0.331342, "balance": 2.242786, "dry_up": 0.530205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129312, "annualized_volatility": 0.824069, "from_high_reference": -0.340885, "from_low_reference": 1.171875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.358333, "fair_value_reference": 9.613928, "structural_low": 9.925, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069925, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.072815, "worst_return": -0.297816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.207677, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.219215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.129118, "worst_return": -0.240958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.27037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.276803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.213214, "worst_return": -0.490019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.141367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.226387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.393635, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.231336, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.27466, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 9.992815, "fair_value": 10.418521, "relative_strength": 6.932637, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.636319, "energy": 70.152091, "activity_lines": [ 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12.55, 13.000714, 12.418462 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.5, "volume": 490, "typical_volume": 15822.3, "trend": 11.340333, "fair_value": 9.530849, "relative_strength": 5.69825, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.394459, "energy": 22.904421, "activity_lines": [ 11.407333, 12.164909, 12.761048, 12.371527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.925, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 14829.65, "trend": 11.416167, "fair_value": 9.538506, "relative_strength": -2.032009, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.67616, "energy": 48.058655, "activity_lines": [ 10.782333, 11.684727, 12.468857, 12.280215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.85, "volume": 21437, "typical_volume": 15454.7, "trend": 11.541333, "fair_value": 9.551098, "relative_strength": 8.480939, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.502138, "energy": 48.769048, "activity_lines": [ 10.598, 11.419182, 12.273214, 12.243688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.52, "volume": 3208, "typical_volume": 14081.9, "trend": 11.741333, "fair_value": 9.568437, "relative_strength": 22.870995, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.449663, "energy": 35.899733, "activity_lines": [ 11.139, 11.516364, 12.241095, 12.306828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.98, "volume": 8563, "typical_volume": 12791.55, "trend": 11.982833, "fair_value": 9.591844, "relative_strength": 33.957769, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.298875, "energy": 8.170464, "activity_lines": [ 12.192, 11.870818, 12.345833, 12.451258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.36, "volume": 8325, "typical_volume": 12026.55, "trend": 12.195167, "fair_value": 9.609099, "relative_strength": 25.155937, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.323875, "energy": 19.418067, "activity_lines": [ 12.793667, 12.112545, 12.386762, 12.540108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.51, "volume": 3721, "typical_volume": 11230.1, "trend": 12.358333, "fair_value": 9.613928, "relative_strength": 15.78213, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.039529, "energy": 22.599113, "activity_lines": [ 12.921333, 12.211909, 12.347976, 12.560419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }