{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaf5e8db-9dd2-49cb-8d9c-cb29b8fd2f88", "symbol": "XINF", "name": "XTRACKERS (IE) PUBLIC LIMITED C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.416, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.941, "architecture_energy": 19.296, "architecture_maturity": 22.608, "architecture_confidence": 59.962, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 51.77, "rotation_down": 40.59, "downward_expansion": 50.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.995167, 37.045, 37.172512, 37.256989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.945, "trend_reference": 37.227834, "distance_from_trend": -0.007597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.836751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.514681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013998, "excess_performance": -0.037238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210, "relative_activity": 0.180374, "balance": 0.518868, "dry_up": 0.299979, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014778, "annualized_volatility": 0.170133, "from_high_reference": -0.056804, "from_low_reference": 0.117598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.227834, "fair_value_reference": 33.836751, "structural_low": 35.305, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0166, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002888, "worst_return": -0.004888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": -7.013307, "energy": 16.968189, "activity_lines": [ 37.024167, 37.082409, 37.269238, 37.257285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.2775, "volume": 896, "typical_volume": 1268.7, "trend": 37.031, "fair_value": 33.737175, "relative_strength": -2.520738, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.331566, "energy": 6.475169, "activity_lines": [ 37.0855, 37.114454, 37.2555, 37.278414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.1525, "volume": 291, "typical_volume": 1278.1, "trend": 37.107667, "fair_value": 33.772751, "relative_strength": -3.906184, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.839807, "energy": 7.96449, "activity_lines": [ 37.1105, 37.128136, 37.24031, 37.286253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.872501, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1235.95, "trend": 37.163417, "fair_value": 33.804707, "relative_strength": -5.606756, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.737888, "energy": 27.227724, "activity_lines": [ 37.025334, 37.076409, 37.201, 37.271081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.945, "volume": 210, "typical_volume": 1164.25, "trend": 37.227834, "fair_value": 33.836751, "relative_strength": -5.514681, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.941191, "energy": 19.296216, "activity_lines": [ 36.995167, 37.045, 37.172512, 37.256989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }