{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaf71246-14ac-4911-b69b-f7b7258d29e8", "symbol": "BROS", "name": "Dutch Bros Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.074, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.309, "architecture_energy": 15.969, "architecture_maturity": 63.387, "architecture_confidence": 74.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.14, "rotation_up": 17.4, "upward_expansion": 55.1, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 35.31, "downward_expansion": 21.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.643333, 64.838364, 62.375857, 59.870022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.01, "trend_reference": 57.609, "distance_from_trend": -0.079831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.265385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.941482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070652, "excess_performance": -0.196277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33895063, "relative_activity": 1.825719, "balance": 1.34909, "dry_up": 0.943665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135662, "annualized_volatility": 0.588224, "from_high_reference": -0.289886, "from_low_reference": 0.189098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.609, "fair_value_reference": 48.265385, "structural_low": 44.58, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042461, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021127, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.296812, "worst_return": -0.004124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.371198, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.325566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.599864, "worst_return": 0.109085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223892, "worst_return": -0.150672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.28, "volume": 4322162, "typical_volume": 4508051.8, "trend": 31.010333, "fair_value": 39.543564, "relative_strength": -13.2141, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.434453, "energy": 17.230956, 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71.260696, "activity_lines": [ 69.529333, 66.854, 61.675333, 59.268645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.0, "volume": 9971023, "typical_volume": 18052947.85, "trend": 57.798667, "fair_value": 47.901923, "relative_strength": 1.477953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.14656, "energy": 44.055675, "activity_lines": [ 67.486, 66.977818, 62.269333, 59.66871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.83, "volume": 13098010, "typical_volume": 17705152.7, "trend": 57.921, "fair_value": 48.139038, "relative_strength": 3.343289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.585401, "energy": 30.946027, "activity_lines": [ 66.500667, 67.198182, 62.97719, 60.18686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.01, "volume": 33895063, "typical_volume": 18565324.3, "trend": 57.609, "fair_value": 48.265385, "relative_strength": -18.941482, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.308722, "energy": 15.969454, "activity_lines": [ 61.643333, 64.838364, 62.375857, 59.870022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }