{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eaf9136a-158d-4964-934c-3dd698e291ca", "symbol": "ISAG", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares Agribusiness UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.745, "architecture_energy": 16.767, "architecture_maturity": 23.531, "architecture_confidence": 55.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.66, "rotation_up": 47.16, "upward_expansion": 32.12, "deceleration": 45.67, "rotation_down": 23.84, "downward_expansion": 23.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.902333, 48.674091, 48.836619, 49.068451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.035, "trend_reference": 49.023, "distance_from_trend": -0.020154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.174455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.207612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.170892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013347, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49861, "relative_activity": 1.321926, "balance": 1.013347, "dry_up": 1.473457, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022876, "annualized_volatility": 0.168558, "from_high_reference": -0.083302, "from_low_reference": 0.150263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.023, "fair_value_reference": 43.174455, "structural_low": 47.134998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020381, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055454, "worst_return": -0.025522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006352, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031249, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.034495, "worst_return": -0.005461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028846, "worst_return": -0.024918, "sufficient": false }, 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] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 47.779999, "volume": 14565, "typical_volume": 36303.25, "trend": 47.881, "fair_value": 42.987981, "relative_strength": -8.647458, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.840286, "energy": 44.591996, "activity_lines": [ 47.906333, 48.477272, 49.151333, 48.879634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.174999, "volume": 1759, "typical_volume": 35040.3, "trend": 48.053666, "fair_value": 43.021891, "relative_strength": -10.340416, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.382147, "energy": 48.58543, "activity_lines": [ 47.919333, 48.344999, 49.022047, 48.898602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.299999, "volume": 18260, "typical_volume": 34978.2, "trend": 48.225666, "fair_value": 43.060673, "relative_strength": -9.529943, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.46945, "energy": 41.410143, "activity_lines": [ 48.010666, 48.255999, 48.910976, 48.914494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.505001, "volume": 40381, "typical_volume": 36207.45, "trend": 48.445666, "fair_value": 43.095705, "relative_strength": -5.809606, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.816345, "energy": 6.21852, "activity_lines": [ 48.544333, 48.423363, 48.922166, 48.997032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.389999, "volume": 68133, "typical_volume": 37481.45, "trend": 48.701166, "fair_value": 43.129744, "relative_strength": -3.863928, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.68278, "energy": 31.395591, "activity_lines": [ 49.266666, 48.753272, 49.019523, 49.122473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.720001, "volume": 63931, "typical_volume": 37365.25, "trend": 48.891167, "fair_value": 43.152372, "relative_strength": -7.497043, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.954623, "energy": 16.920725, "activity_lines": [ 49.23, 48.772636, 48.953404, 49.123688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.035, "volume": 49861, "typical_volume": 37718.45, "trend": 49.023, "fair_value": 43.174455, "relative_strength": -11.207612, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.745069, "energy": 16.767483, "activity_lines": [ 48.902333, 48.674091, 48.836619, 49.068451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }