{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb00652c-2c2a-4734-9732-da6c37f52c64", "symbol": "PBSE", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - SEPTEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.68, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.556, "architecture_energy": 80.702, "architecture_maturity": 50.771, "architecture_confidence": 80.5, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.25, "rotation_up": 68.46, "upward_expansion": 92.76, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.061867, 30.9664, 30.7722, 30.48838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.215, "trend_reference": 30.153977, "distance_from_trend": 0.035187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.855102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.230712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053063, "excess_performance": -0.072562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053063, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.778889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11608, "relative_activity": 0.560732, "balance": 2.778889, "dry_up": 0.653069, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005022, "annualized_volatility": 0.045041, "from_high_reference": -0.00016, "from_low_reference": 0.103393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.153977, "fair_value_reference": 27.855102, "structural_low": 28.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005702, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001674, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.019483, "worst_return": -0.009061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035752, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.033179, "worst_return": 0.029038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063181, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074698, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.063181, "worst_return": 0.063181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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93.126615, "activity_lines": [ 30.86514, 30.777553, 30.47864, 30.229611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.89, "volume": 10612, "typical_volume": 19661.15, "trend": 30.00112, "fair_value": 27.770403, "relative_strength": -3.953156, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.606164, "energy": 88.071285, "activity_lines": [ 30.889, 30.811344, 30.549701, 30.290246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.956, "volume": 9080, "typical_volume": 19477.9, "trend": 30.047987, "fair_value": 27.798103, "relative_strength": -3.05653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.949176, "energy": 89.796555, "activity_lines": [ 30.921527, 30.849589, 30.62043, 30.351851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.05, "volume": 22778, "typical_volume": 20483.25, "trend": 30.10081, "fair_value": 27.826137, "relative_strength": -3.646848, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.744386, "energy": 89.326901, "activity_lines": [ 30.9746, 30.896907, 30.692757, 30.416497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.215, "volume": 11608, "typical_volume": 20701.5, "trend": 30.153977, "fair_value": 27.855102, "relative_strength": -6.230712, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.556464, "energy": 80.702311, "activity_lines": [ 31.061867, 30.9664, 30.7722, 30.48838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }