{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb046bd7-b184-46dd-a2d4-6b47efa80241", "symbol": "SPOK", "name": "Spok Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.246, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.051, "architecture_energy": 17.442, "architecture_maturity": 13.018, "architecture_confidence": 53.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.31, "rotation_up": 40.34, "upward_expansion": 32.8, "deceleration": 42.71, "rotation_down": 20.32, "downward_expansion": 45.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.978, 10.802, 10.732132, 10.861929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.52, "trend_reference": 11.206099, "distance_from_trend": 0.028012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.064582, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.79913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079392, "excess_performance": -0.266846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067281, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 936040, "relative_activity": 1.149971, "balance": 1.315579, "dry_up": 0.960285, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044195, "annualized_volatility": 0.262933, "from_high_reference": -0.324535, "from_low_reference": 0.191508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.206099, "fair_value_reference": 13.064582, "structural_low": 9.668417, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002071, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047655, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154367, "worst_return": -0.095188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038609, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082564, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.169202, "worst_return": -0.14432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127639, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.071032, "worst_return": -0.263018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -56.582837, "energy": 36.357657, "activity_lines": [ 10.528667, 10.587404, 10.666241, 10.96389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.64, "volume": 769405, "typical_volume": 833182.0, "trend": 11.333782, "fair_value": 13.064611, "relative_strength": -25.857371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.173154, "energy": 31.241498, "activity_lines": [ 10.544, 10.593866, 10.650439, 10.915711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.59, "volume": 631933, "typical_volume": 816637.55, "trend": 11.278179, "fair_value": 13.059226, "relative_strength": -24.116098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.710576, "energy": 28.816289, "activity_lines": [ 10.56, 10.590179, 10.633886, 10.867725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 789187, "typical_volume": 811619.45, "trend": 11.231648, "fair_value": 13.061578, "relative_strength": -21.237269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.934122, "energy": 16.392053, "activity_lines": [ 10.674, 10.642, 10.652909, 10.843326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.52, "volume": 936040, "typical_volume": 813968.4, "trend": 11.206099, "fair_value": 13.064582, "relative_strength": -19.79913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.050516, "energy": 17.442035, "activity_lines": [ 10.978, 10.802, 10.732132, 10.861929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }