{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb0c2c29-424b-477a-ac42-2e914c33f439", "symbol": "000037", "name": "Shenzhen Nanshan Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.762, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.207, "architecture_energy": 12.565, "architecture_maturity": 26.994, "architecture_confidence": 62.353, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.27, "rotation_up": 30.65, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 67.54, "rotation_down": 33.23, "downward_expansion": 32.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.36, 9.345287, 9.830445, 9.974271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.01, "trend_reference": 9.961643, "distance_from_trend": 0.004854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.903136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.369629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078664, "excess_performance": 0.071264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023696, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078664, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199327611, "relative_activity": 1.312166, "balance": 0.615024, "dry_up": 1.156409, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121367, "annualized_volatility": 0.655689, "from_high_reference": -0.241092, "from_low_reference": 0.270305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.961643, "fair_value_reference": 8.903136, "structural_low": 7.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.037662, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.03378, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.191667, "worst_return": -0.091026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073929, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.071005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.593506, "worst_return": -0.025882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073824, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.054283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.030769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.142857, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017691, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.155433, "worst_return": 0.052381, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061039, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.149752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043529, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029782, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.49, "volume": 88795228, "typical_volume": 108682077.05, "trend": 8.739333, "fair_value": 9.192179, "relative_strength": 27.398132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.837553, "energy": 56.478256, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.97, "volume": 297819792, "typical_volume": 148705315.2, "trend": 9.880976, "fair_value": 8.92756, "relative_strength": -5.43811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.175103, "energy": 54.354548, "activity_lines": [ 8.916, 9.419605, 9.948295, 10.013946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.16, "volume": 125161630, "typical_volume": 151505980.15, "trend": 9.903976, "fair_value": 8.908842, "relative_strength": -1.623357, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.088568, "energy": 39.568871, "activity_lines": [ 9.006, 9.298814, 9.847156, 9.967431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.01, "volume": 199327611, "typical_volume": 151907310.85, "trend": 9.961643, "fair_value": 8.903136, "relative_strength": 2.369629, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.207193, "energy": 12.565244, "activity_lines": [ 9.36, 9.345287, 9.830445, 9.974271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }