{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb0e73ee-b746-4dce-b227-7d13f6b84c3c", "symbol": "PGW", "name": "PGG Wrightson Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.612, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.989, "architecture_energy": 46.997, "architecture_maturity": 8.941, "architecture_confidence": 76.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.07, "rotation_up": 62.47, "upward_expansion": 79.33, "deceleration": 53.61, "rotation_down": 14.26, "downward_expansion": 6.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.225333, 2.206182, 2.175952, 2.168349 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.166213, "distance_from_trend": 0.061761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.19039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.401423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028703, "excess_performance": 0.000429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.474931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98454, "relative_activity": 1.694011, "balance": 1.474931, "dry_up": 1.53498, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033779, "annualized_volatility": 0.206384, "from_high_reference": -0.079371, "from_low_reference": 0.165525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.166213, "fair_value_reference": 2.19039, "structural_low": 1.973359, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000493, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008511, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.07109, "worst_return": -0.094241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.026866, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022237, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.208022, "worst_return": -0.11, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011182, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026558, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.58707, "worst_return": -0.06, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.143644, "energy": 35.681219, "activity_lines": [ 2.199333, 2.162909, 2.152396, 2.154831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 96983, "typical_volume": 54357.25, "trend": 2.156436, "fair_value": 2.222118, "relative_strength": -4.171568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.314504, "energy": 26.768114, "activity_lines": [ 2.194667, 2.165091, 2.153794, 2.155086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.17, "volume": 52653, "typical_volume": 53787.25, "trend": 2.157158, "fair_value": 2.211492, "relative_strength": -4.185683, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.197103, "energy": 34.676916, "activity_lines": [ 2.189333, 2.168727, 2.156274, 2.155961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.21, "volume": 108755, "typical_volume": 57116.1, "trend": 2.160834, "fair_value": 2.200829, "relative_strength": -1.785454, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.109005, "energy": 20.742968, "activity_lines": [ 2.192667, 2.180182, 2.16209, 2.15937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 98454, "typical_volume": 58118.85, "trend": 2.166213, "fair_value": 2.19039, "relative_strength": 1.401423, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.989011, "energy": 46.997434, "activity_lines": [ 2.225333, 2.206182, 2.175952, 2.168349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }