{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb121faf-1333-49a4-ae27-00f09cc84796", "symbol": "INFR", "name": "iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.493, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.49, "architecture_energy": 29.706, "architecture_maturity": 22.289, "architecture_confidence": 56.248, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.49, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 75.81, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 23.01, "downward_expansion": 4.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.569666, 39.556454, 39.380266, 39.2103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.009998, "trend_reference": 38.790355, "distance_from_trend": 0.005662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.730135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.302347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052149, "excess_performance": -0.030734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.206817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35967, "relative_activity": 0.426734, "balance": 0.206817, "dry_up": 0.424038, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020307, "annualized_volatility": 0.133376, "from_high_reference": -0.040816, "from_low_reference": 0.15457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.790355, "fair_value_reference": 32.730135, "structural_low": 37.502384, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.000435, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.007666, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.091913, "worst_return": -0.06527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.025022, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.018452, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.104874, "worst_return": -0.076905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048571, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.025625, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09435, "worst_return": -0.155829, 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35.101905, "activity_lines": [ 39.305666, 39.182433, 39.102092, 38.772451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.474998, "volume": 30668, "typical_volume": 80529.15, "trend": 38.16977, "fair_value": 32.43847, "relative_strength": -2.367556, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.589874, "energy": 34.608293, "activity_lines": [ 39.384999, 39.247318, 39.142936, 38.866258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.334999, "volume": 33493, "typical_volume": 81360.05, "trend": 38.340618, "fair_value": 32.512893, "relative_strength": -0.968881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.956811, "energy": 67.955708, "activity_lines": [ 39.728666, 39.46078, 39.26412, 39.005951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.349998, "volume": 14328, "typical_volume": 81086.2, "trend": 38.519559, "fair_value": 32.586366, "relative_strength": -0.789942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.678433, "energy": 71.254457, "activity_lines": [ 40.012999, 39.654181, 39.383607, 39.135588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.325001, "volume": 59171, "typical_volume": 83517.0, "trend": 38.657401, "fair_value": 32.658917, "relative_strength": -3.365898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.222082, "energy": 47.617272, "activity_lines": [ 39.832333, 39.633181, 39.398321, 39.187552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.009998, "volume": 35967, "typical_volume": 84284.4, "trend": 38.790355, "fair_value": 32.730135, "relative_strength": -5.302347, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.490228, "energy": 29.705797, "activity_lines": [ 39.569666, 39.556454, 39.380266, 39.2103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }