{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb14069a-f8e2-4b8a-9e55-49d3dbe015c4", "symbol": "VOLARA", "name": "Controladora Vuela Compa\u00f1\u00eda de Aviaci\u00f3n, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.166, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.066, "architecture_energy": 23.569, "architecture_maturity": 29.215, "architecture_confidence": 64.531, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.56, "rotation_up": 7.85, "upward_expansion": 20.8, "deceleration": 69.72, "rotation_down": 58.04, "downward_expansion": 56.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.722, 14.212364, 13.898476, 13.871871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.06, "trend_reference": 14.230667, "distance_from_trend": -0.011993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.109615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.394627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225344, "excess_performance": -0.170678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113751, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003946, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062508, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13450265, "relative_activity": 1.163875, "balance": 1.062508, "dry_up": 1.160553, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096509, "annualized_volatility": 0.550903, "from_high_reference": -0.242457, "from_low_reference": 0.367704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.230667, "fair_value_reference": 13.109615, "structural_low": 10.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.069883, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.028096, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.276648, "worst_return": -0.154247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055808, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043179, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.132134, "worst_return": -0.281768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.126035, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.112276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302762, "worst_return": -0.186865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.285565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.337621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276779, "worst_return": -0.563418, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.310077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", 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13.38641, "relative_strength": 19.155564, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.716866, "energy": 39.58793, "activity_lines": [ 14.847334, 13.916727, 13.566667, 14.011548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.02, "volume": 222291, "typical_volume": 16841676.8, "trend": 14.634667, "fair_value": 13.339872, "relative_strength": 16.054909, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.56134, "energy": 55.411558, "activity_lines": [ 15.41, 14.384364, 13.783143, 14.105828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.61, "volume": 9853694, "typical_volume": 16931806.1, "trend": 14.652333, "fair_value": 13.288333, "relative_strength": 6.173534, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.55473, "energy": 51.296551, "activity_lines": [ 15.347334, 14.542909, 13.872, 14.104237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.45, "volume": 11459609, "typical_volume": 16144434.1, "trend": 14.530667, "fair_value": 13.224038, "relative_strength": -2.915729, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.893851, "energy": 33.425607, "activity_lines": [ 14.771333, 14.462182, 13.863714, 14.026667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.26, "volume": 20895698, "typical_volume": 16266335.25, "trend": 14.421667, "fair_value": 13.175705, "relative_strength": -4.138824, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.515783, "energy": 14.739782, "activity_lines": [ 14.155333, 14.344182, 13.844286, 13.944688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.56, "volume": 7841932, "typical_volume": 14055099.15, "trend": 14.327, "fair_value": 13.137051, "relative_strength": -2.89543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.374604, "energy": 26.438747, "activity_lines": [ 13.762, 14.248, 13.84981, 13.889097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.06, "volume": 13450265, "typical_volume": 11556454.45, "trend": 14.230667, "fair_value": 13.109615, "relative_strength": 0.394627, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.066101, "energy": 23.569138, "activity_lines": [ 13.722, 14.212364, 13.898476, 13.871871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }