{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb1dd45c-9d4d-454d-bd4f-fb9f842105c3", "symbol": "PG", "name": "The Procter & Gamble Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.344, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.699, "architecture_energy": 36.646, "architecture_maturity": 15.143, "architecture_confidence": 81.779, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.17, "rotation_up": 16.22, "upward_expansion": 16.82, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 55.44, "downward_expansion": 71.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 2530.931578, 2557.266424, 2553.210826, 2571.160778 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2497.0, "trend_reference": 2599.124331, "distance_from_trend": -0.039292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2889.408981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.580355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089821, "excess_performance": -0.035154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103551, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 468, "relative_activity": 0.113254, "balance": 0.561419, "dry_up": 0.499722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032496, "annualized_volatility": 0.152371, "from_high_reference": -0.17218, "from_low_reference": 0.023361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2599.124331, "fair_value_reference": 2889.408981, "structural_low": 2440.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.035905, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.045532, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.051975, "worst_return": -0.162307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075806, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.0529, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.088118, "worst_return": -0.14035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044842, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.104788, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.221542, "worst_return": -0.218935, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 2555.559881, 2570.678341, 2558.866022, 2577.87155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2497.0, "volume": 468, "typical_volume": 4132.3, "trend": 2599.124331, "fair_value": 2889.408981, "relative_strength": -8.580355, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.698692, "energy": 36.645835, "activity_lines": [ 2530.931578, 2557.266424, 2553.210826, 2571.160778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }