{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb1f983f-f0d6-48d8-a5b3-55ceed196eca", "symbol": "300556", "name": "Silkroad Visual Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.374, "architecture_energy": 72.81, "architecture_maturity": 21.231, "architecture_confidence": 85.643, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 9.4, "upward_expansion": 16.47, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 72.64, "downward_expansion": 89.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.387334, 16.219818, 17.506619, 17.979828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.040001, "trend_reference": 18.659667, "distance_from_trend": -0.140392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.31538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.932345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203179, "excess_performance": -0.210579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.585935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25996234, "relative_activity": 1.059911, "balance": 0.585935, "dry_up": 1.130354, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116584, "annualized_volatility": 0.439419, "from_high_reference": -0.305026, "from_low_reference": 0.178545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.659667, "fair_value_reference": 20.31538, "structural_low": 13.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016987, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.00493, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.208015, "worst_return": -0.099351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000892, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001127, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.28043, "worst_return": -0.206643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066299, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.116216, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.284324, "worst_return": -0.132701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 39.270457, "activity_lines": [ 18.368667, 19.031636, 19.000476, 19.135419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.469999, "volume": 31455179, "typical_volume": 23436727.7, "trend": 19.151, "fair_value": 20.515993, "relative_strength": -25.172626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.385329, "energy": 63.394973, "activity_lines": [ 17.616, 18.479636, 18.754, 18.955978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.2, "volume": 27516856, "typical_volume": 23775516.45, "trend": 19.032667, "fair_value": 20.456419, "relative_strength": -23.428403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.099904, "energy": 78.57523, "activity_lines": [ 16.574, 17.762182, 18.40919, 18.701075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.02, "volume": 30121364, "typical_volume": 23789012.9, "trend": 18.868667, "fair_value": 20.398494, "relative_strength": -28.823948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.246777, "energy": 85.031852, "activity_lines": [ 15.513333, 16.931454, 17.977524, 18.377677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.42, "volume": 27261529, "typical_volume": 24128534.35, "trend": 18.758, "fair_value": 20.350951, "relative_strength": -19.767974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.805827, "energy": 78.876009, "activity_lines": [ 15.269333, 16.468182, 17.703619, 18.155183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 25996234, "typical_volume": 24526817.9, "trend": 18.659667, "fair_value": 20.31538, "relative_strength": -19.932345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.373756, "energy": 72.809616, "activity_lines": [ 15.387334, 16.219818, 17.506619, 17.979828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }