{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb2032b5-72ea-42fa-a561-6ccff0f7a8a3", "symbol": "KCAI", "name": "KRANESHARES CHINA ALPHA INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.914, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.303, "architecture_energy": 30.05, "architecture_maturity": 28.664, "architecture_confidence": 51.498, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.98, "rotation_up": 58.27, "upward_expansion": 67.15, "deceleration": 59.27, "rotation_down": 17.1, "downward_expansion": 15.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.390333, 32.143589, 32.194557, 32.099605 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.705, "trend_reference": 31.81263, "distance_from_trend": 0.028051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.396664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.679618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069049, "excess_performance": -0.056576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028051, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.091413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.061356, "balance": 0.091413, "dry_up": 0.224162, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022584, "annualized_volatility": 0.100277, "from_high_reference": -0.017278, "from_low_reference": 0.367235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.81263, "fair_value_reference": 25.396664, "structural_low": 30.745, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000502, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046044, "worst_return": -0.029642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022575, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014263, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 18.141139, "volume": 198912, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 17.803321, "volume": 1489, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"fair_value": 25.250247, "relative_strength": -0.237119, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.911583, "energy": 16.377156, "activity_lines": [ 31.77492, 31.897365, 32.083933, 31.969373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.73, "volume": 7365, "typical_volume": 16628.85, "trend": 31.738633, "fair_value": 25.324304, "relative_strength": -0.036542, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.777073, "energy": 19.599478, "activity_lines": [ 32.118287, 32.030251, 32.141269, 32.037259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.705, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 16298.45, "trend": 31.81263, "fair_value": 25.396664, "relative_strength": -3.679618, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.303074, "energy": 30.049506, "activity_lines": [ 32.390333, 32.143589, 32.194557, 32.099605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }