{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb221a2a-af5f-44c5-ac68-83b7f5371f75", "symbol": "DB49", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Canada UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.605, "architecture_energy": 77.198, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.865, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.7, "rotation_up": 71.5, "upward_expansion": 90.86, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 19.02, "downward_expansion": 15.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.633333, 110.864727, 109.243333, 107.643312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 113.099998, "trend_reference": 105.659, "distance_from_trend": 0.070425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.589167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.387303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132359, "excess_performance": -0.041888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041817, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0331, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4968, "relative_activity": 3.298148, "balance": 1.461676, "dry_up": 1.364104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016595, "annualized_volatility": 0.11748, "from_high_reference": -0.001236, "from_low_reference": 0.291096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.659, "fair_value_reference": 83.589167, "structural_low": 97.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.017675, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": -0.001741, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.071024, "worst_return": -0.062595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.047565, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.020785, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.123392, "worst_return": -0.103295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10997, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.042222, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.169871, "worst_return": -0.029522, 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107.185809, 105.858344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.879997, "volume": 828, "typical_volume": 1689.9, "trend": 104.534333, "fair_value": 82.681731, "relative_strength": -5.833776, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.886474, "energy": 90.089472, "activity_lines": [ 110.509332, 109.637454, 107.772428, 106.359032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 111.300003, "volume": 796, "typical_volume": 1520.4, "trend": 104.909, "fair_value": 82.975641, "relative_strength": -7.484298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.200647, "energy": 85.423841, "activity_lines": [ 110.94, 110.093091, 108.273143, 106.795527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.220001, "volume": 1627, "typical_volume": 1392.45, "trend": 105.270333, "fair_value": 83.273654, "relative_strength": -8.192047, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.983469, "energy": 69.98486, "activity_lines": [ 110.836, 110.240727, 108.637952, 107.138172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.099998, "volume": 4968, "typical_volume": 1506.3, "trend": 105.659, "fair_value": 83.589167, "relative_strength": -8.387303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.604749, "energy": 77.197772, "activity_lines": [ 111.633333, 110.864727, 109.243333, 107.643312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }