{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb24c81e-6d46-4c0a-812c-e813c6d6c097", "symbol": "TDUP", "name": "ThredUp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.316, "architecture_energy": 16.969, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.246, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.05, "rotation_up": 17.54, "upward_expansion": 57.04, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 39.49, "downward_expansion": 20.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.071333, 5.660727, 5.36781, 5.046452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.21, "trend_reference": 4.812, "distance_from_trend": -0.332918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.040195, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.225967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347561, "excess_performance": -0.535015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.332918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.57226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.109378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34777089, "relative_activity": 3.025717, "balance": 1.109378, "dry_up": 1.181393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.309621, "annualized_volatility": 1.101987, "from_high_reference": -0.738599, "from_low_reference": 0.055921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.812, "fair_value_reference": 4.040195, "structural_low": 3.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.10625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": 0.0625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.223571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.177813, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.374051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035, "worst_return": -0.390625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.311396, "active": false }, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.6, "volume": 5699156, "typical_volume": 11549680.35, "trend": 4.932333, "fair_value": 4.016797, "relative_strength": -12.640646, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.555877, "energy": 86.741303, "activity_lines": [ 6.690667, 6.134, 5.352095, 5.050452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.7, "volume": 7191438, "typical_volume": 10726695.75, "trend": 4.914667, "fair_value": 4.030644, "relative_strength": -22.603704, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.295174, "energy": 55.325984, "activity_lines": [ 6.379333, 6.150727, 5.444095, 5.099978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.78, "volume": 6647271, "typical_volume": 10384531.5, "trend": 4.905, "fair_value": 4.046541, "relative_strength": -20.965357, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.947539, "energy": 38.176109, "activity_lines": [ 6.115333, 6.152909, 5.533952, 5.155806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.21, "volume": 34777089, "typical_volume": 11493832.95, "trend": 4.812, "fair_value": 4.040195, "relative_strength": -57.225967, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.316377, "energy": 16.969261, "activity_lines": [ 5.071333, 5.660727, 5.36781, 5.046452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }