{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb2ffb6c-291d-40fc-b02e-26758457a5ed", "symbol": "ETFJAP", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Prime Japan UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.3, "architecture_energy": 45.842, "architecture_maturity": 56.584, "architecture_confidence": 76.89, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.08, "rotation_up": 44.31, "upward_expansion": 73.14, "deceleration": 91.45, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 11.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.932, 36.885818, 36.286143, 35.644484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.924999, "trend_reference": 34.887167, "distance_from_trend": 0.087076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.628881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324711, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.443306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118567, "excess_performance": -0.052325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050081, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.674334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46109, "relative_activity": 1.508134, "balance": 2.674334, "dry_up": 1.656203, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027869, "annualized_volatility": 0.188826, "from_high_reference": -0.001974, "from_low_reference": 0.303146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.887167, "fair_value_reference": 28.628881, "structural_low": 31.375, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020563, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021024, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.079375, "worst_return": -0.021008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149282, "worst_return": -0.075027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016479, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.012922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146746, "worst_return": -0.059087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.404999, "volume": 53513, "typical_volume": 25022.2, "trend": 34.206166, "fair_value": 28.289087, "relative_strength": -0.643359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.062983, "energy": 87.730496, "activity_lines": [ 37.168999, 36.677363, 35.648904, 35.068881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.869999, "volume": 73823, "typical_volume": 28486.65, "trend": 34.364666, "fair_value": 28.370236, "relative_strength": -3.433745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.985753, "energy": 54.348435, "activity_lines": [ 36.798333, 36.606727, 35.74369, 35.176225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.630001, "volume": 42026, "typical_volume": 29560.15, "trend": 34.5465, "fair_value": 28.451159, "relative_strength": -1.285661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.713875, "energy": 48.142321, "activity_lines": [ 36.684333, 36.660272, 35.908666, 35.322376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.330002, "volume": 40586, "typical_volume": 29537.55, "trend": 34.715833, "fair_value": 28.534953, "relative_strength": -2.783815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.704484, "energy": 33.908102, "activity_lines": [ 36.526667, 36.635364, 36.029405, 35.437441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.924999, "volume": 46109, "typical_volume": 30573.55, "trend": 34.887167, "fair_value": 28.628881, "relative_strength": -1.443306, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.299508, "energy": 45.842083, "activity_lines": [ 36.932, 36.885818, 36.286143, 35.644484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }