{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb308a08-eeee-4d78-bfdb-04a5b5446d27", "symbol": "SPGR", "name": "Spotlight Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.741, "architecture_energy": 68.489, "architecture_maturity": 62.7, "architecture_confidence": 91.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 63.29, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 64.28, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.773332, 30.934545, 25.951904, 23.36129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.799999, "trend_reference": 20.686666, "distance_from_trend": 0.537222, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.444872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416805, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.447886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.848837, "excess_performance": 0.787343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.537222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.733746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.454479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.676609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.848837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18782, "relative_activity": 2.16677, "balance": 0.854096, "dry_up": 1.457511, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059748, "annualized_volatility": 0.986899, "from_high_reference": -0.00625, "from_low_reference": 1.148649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.686666, "fair_value_reference": 22.444872, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023104, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01513, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006897, "worst_return": -0.156977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.178652, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.157303, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.237524, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.185393, "worst_return": -0.289655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-06-26", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 31410, "typical_volume": 10140.55, "trend": 17.83, "fair_value": 22.391026, "relative_strength": 59.216477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.168498, "energy": 98.138149, "activity_lines": [ 25.746666, 21.572727, 19.124762, 18.435269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.6, "volume": 3552, "typical_volume": 10215.5, "trend": 18.276667, "fair_value": 22.379487, "relative_strength": 52.837926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.269458, "energy": 96.922999, "activity_lines": [ 28.72, 23.829091, 20.428095, 19.323656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 7986, "typical_volume": 7363.4, "trend": 18.763333, "fair_value": 22.391026, "relative_strength": 56.070136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.319214, "energy": 93.108523, "activity_lines": [ 30.739999, 25.839999, 21.681904, 20.196129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.6, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 6846.35, "trend": 19.23, "fair_value": 22.401282, "relative_strength": 55.623741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.326926, "energy": 88.553389, "activity_lines": [ 31.706666, 27.530909, 22.84, 21.024301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 20567, "typical_volume": 7457.45, "trend": 19.733333, "fair_value": 22.415385, "relative_strength": 52.737145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.632186, "energy": 89.287048, "activity_lines": [ 31.719999, 28.967272, 23.949523, 21.835269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 8937, "typical_volume": 7882.3, "trend": 20.213333, "fair_value": 22.437179, "relative_strength": 49.48098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.233336, "energy": 81.613111, "activity_lines": [ 31.746666, 30.098181, 24.98619, 22.613763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 18782, "typical_volume": 8668.2, "trend": 20.686666, "fair_value": 22.444872, "relative_strength": 45.447886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.741298, "energy": 68.488806, "activity_lines": [ 31.773332, 30.934545, 25.951904, 23.36129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }