{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb30e6d9-779e-4103-a3a3-52d6a646e9c2", "symbol": "ZCH", "name": "BMO MSCI China Selection Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.146, "architecture_energy": 27.849, "architecture_maturity": 98.695, "architecture_confidence": 45.487, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 47.61, "upward_expansion": 34.26, "deceleration": 47.02, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 44.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.773333, 18.328182, 18.310572, 18.499204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.23, "trend_reference": 18.962, "distance_from_trend": 0.014134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.387259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.944052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070116, "excess_performance": -0.190537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004162, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.829281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23300, "relative_activity": 0.676048, "balance": 0.829281, "dry_up": 1.042362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032041, "annualized_volatility": 0.214694, "from_high_reference": -0.182058, "from_low_reference": 0.144643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.962, "fair_value_reference": 16.387259, "structural_low": 16.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.011476, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.026501, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.196262, "worst_return": -0.132402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.064164, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.077112, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.197217, "worst_return": -0.163295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099071, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001293, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.098859, "worst_return": -0.287238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.776494, "energy": 68.909048, "activity_lines": [ 18.188667, 18.447818, 18.695524, 19.140313 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 46510.0, "trend": 19.623938, "fair_value": 16.197333, "relative_strength": -21.398718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.833225, "energy": 76.521513, "activity_lines": [ 18.011334, 18.27, 18.566191, 19.008599 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 40435.0, "trend": 19.46975, "fair_value": 16.22021, "relative_strength": -24.579846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.669996, "energy": 85.91137, "activity_lines": [ 17.624666, 17.969091, 18.375476, 18.832215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.4, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 37700.0, "trend": 19.342436, "fair_value": 16.244808, "relative_strength": -22.524247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.338706, "energy": 79.113972, "activity_lines": [ 17.49, 17.812364, 18.251381, 18.698683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.16, "volume": 31800, "typical_volume": 38265.0, "trend": 19.261849, "fair_value": 16.27178, "relative_strength": -18.916952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.143208, "energy": 61.4711, "activity_lines": [ 17.651333, 17.823636, 18.212429, 18.622397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.09, "volume": 35200, "typical_volume": 37770.0, "trend": 19.175637, "fair_value": 16.301159, "relative_strength": -18.699923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.279348, "energy": 47.865426, "activity_lines": [ 17.784667, 17.832727, 18.17681, 18.546794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.25, "volume": 31100, "typical_volume": 36135.0, "trend": 19.102, "fair_value": 16.323709, "relative_strength": -17.761934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.417977, "energy": 27.400884, "activity_lines": [ 17.985333, 17.889091, 18.162286, 18.487075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.09, "volume": 54100, "typical_volume": 35510.0, "trend": 19.03, "fair_value": 16.35325, "relative_strength": -13.233915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.635945, "energy": 18.888531, "activity_lines": [ 18.429333, 18.104727, 18.229238, 18.486301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.23, "volume": 23300, "typical_volume": 34465.0, "trend": 18.962, "fair_value": 16.387259, "relative_strength": -14.944052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.145577, "energy": 27.849334, "activity_lines": [ 18.773333, 18.328182, 18.310572, 18.499204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }