{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb34006f-d93b-43bb-a068-a15c8ef80ea4", "symbol": "SONO", "name": "Sonovia Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.695, "architecture_energy": 52.762, "architecture_maturity": 16.515, "architecture_confidence": 88.239, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.99, "rotation_up": 12.99, "upward_expansion": 12.89, "deceleration": 36.16, "rotation_down": 66.89, "downward_expansion": 86.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.472067, 0.497018, 0.511476, 0.513849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.462, "trend_reference": 0.517033, "distance_from_trend": -0.106441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.625142, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.236895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149171, "excess_performance": -0.178072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26663, "relative_activity": 0.259124, "balance": 0.680324, "dry_up": 1.338376, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153014, "annualized_volatility": 0.855539, "from_high_reference": -0.39922, "from_low_reference": 0.110577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.517033, "fair_value_reference": 0.625142, "structural_low": 0.416, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.099077, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.354037, "worst_return": -0.217317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.141638, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.222963, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.048701, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.183442, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.53415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183442, "worst_return": -0.183442, "sufficient": false }, { 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0.532857, 0.529346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.474, "volume": 287610, "typical_volume": 124180.85, "trend": 0.525633, "fair_value": 0.629992, "relative_strength": -22.993772, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.844295, "energy": 11.961718, "activity_lines": [ 0.538133, 0.527309, 0.527924, 0.525774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.494, "volume": 244581, "typical_volume": 125863.6, "trend": 0.523633, "fair_value": 0.628895, "relative_strength": -20.784611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.620788, "energy": 5.34565, "activity_lines": [ 0.525867, 0.520582, 0.525662, 0.523733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.483, "volume": 156472, "typical_volume": 118124.15, "trend": 0.520567, "fair_value": 0.627728, "relative_strength": -23.595963, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.934855, "energy": 5.999798, "activity_lines": [ 0.51, 0.513527, 0.522295, 0.521112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.465, "volume": 123142, "typical_volume": 113313.1, "trend": 0.519, "fair_value": 0.626437, "relative_strength": -23.400186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.618646, "energy": 37.348252, "activity_lines": [ 0.4894, 0.504655, 0.516938, 0.517527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.462, "volume": 26663, "typical_volume": 102896.75, "trend": 0.517033, "fair_value": 0.625142, "relative_strength": -23.236895, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.694776, "energy": 52.761859, "activity_lines": [ 0.472067, 0.497018, 0.511476, 0.513849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }