{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb3edb55-a1b5-4ea1-b157-0766725156ad", "symbol": "DME", "name": "Dome Gold Mines Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.006, "architecture_energy": 22.682, "architecture_maturity": 45.37, "architecture_confidence": 57.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.87, "rotation_up": 38.74, "upward_expansion": 29.38, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 49.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.047733, 0.044727, 0.042876, 0.048331 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.060033, "distance_from_trend": -0.167129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.14484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.30785, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654791, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.493079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154821, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.149289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30000, "relative_activity": 0.361906, "balance": 2.149289, "dry_up": 1.569815, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098462, "annualized_volatility": 1.05614, "from_high_reference": -0.72973, "from_low_reference": 0.724138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.060033, "fair_value_reference": 0.14484, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009338, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.382353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114286, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.078227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.054054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077031, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.071283, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.180199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.630769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.18, "volume": 11005, "typical_volume": 24103.05, "trend": 0.1925, "fair_value": 0.200385, "relative_strength": -13.77051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.178884, "energy": 40.397859, "activity_lines": [ 0.043467, 0.039636, 0.042652, 0.051262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.046, "volume": 133663, "typical_volume": 83786.35, "trend": 0.0629, "fair_value": 0.146583, "relative_strength": -52.951641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.624004, "energy": 33.929582, "activity_lines": [ 0.044867, 0.041036, 0.042386, 0.050045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.048, "volume": 40130, "typical_volume": 82640.9, "trend": 0.061667, "fair_value": 0.145705, "relative_strength": -50.912882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.025356, "energy": 27.132777, "activity_lines": [ 0.046067, 0.042782, 0.042471, 0.049084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 82894.5, "trend": 0.060033, "fair_value": 0.14484, "relative_strength": -49.30785, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.006197, "energy": 22.681718, "activity_lines": [ 0.047733, 0.044727, 0.042876, 0.048331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }