{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb3f0a1e-f99b-4f5a-abfe-c6832f124abf", "symbol": "4552", "name": "Lida Holdings Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.039, "architecture_energy": 88.928, "architecture_maturity": 44.66, "architecture_confidence": 79.944, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 8.64, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 84.38, "downward_expansion": 99.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.923334, 18.679091, 19.409048, 19.997419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.65, "trend_reference": 20.968333, "distance_from_trend": -0.158255, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.460899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.101935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247335, "excess_performance": -0.688707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158255, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.431019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384102, "relative_activity": 0.665069, "balance": 1.013326, "dry_up": 1.385674, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052299, "annualized_volatility": 0.201295, "from_high_reference": -0.30099, "from_low_reference": 0.044379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.968333, "fair_value_reference": 24.460899, "structural_low": 16.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.011006, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.004141, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.175183, "worst_return": -0.073413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014639, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.082695, "worst_return": -0.172757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01581, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.051047, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.114283, "worst_return": -0.216981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -41.631897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.923838, "energy": 91.897899, "activity_lines": [ 18.7, 19.443636, 19.877857, 20.462258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 642581, "typical_volume": 576595.6, "trend": 21.17, "fair_value": 24.528054, "relative_strength": -41.864369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.337697, "energy": 91.758094, "activity_lines": [ 18.240001, 19.045455, 19.637143, 20.224516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.65, "volume": 384102, "typical_volume": 577537.2, "trend": 20.968333, "fair_value": 24.460899, "relative_strength": -43.101935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.039108, "energy": 88.928011, "activity_lines": [ 17.923334, 18.679091, 19.409048, 19.997419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }