{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb42b8ad-263f-4f47-b50a-630cc05aa5c7", "symbol": "688010", "name": "Fujian Forecam Optics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.449, "architecture_energy": 42.271, "architecture_maturity": 44.649, "architecture_confidence": 70.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 59.21, "rotation_down": 67.01, "downward_expansion": 44.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.094667, 32.884364, 35.684858, 35.141613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.610001, "trend_reference": 34.324, "distance_from_trend": -0.195607, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.347792, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009588, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.621916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100944, "excess_performance": -0.05774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009588, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23360475, "relative_activity": 0.882438, "balance": 0.836584, "dry_up": 1.101987, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.286574, "annualized_volatility": 0.975622, "from_high_reference": -0.474095, "from_low_reference": 0.255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.324, "fair_value_reference": 27.347792, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012781, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261282, "worst_return": -0.387519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.094902, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281557, "worst_return": -0.35127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045814, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.153641, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174435, "worst_return": -0.419656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.040586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.160842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131397, "worst_return": -0.212569, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.189204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.618778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.268149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168026, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131557, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 21.024632, "volume": 4089184, "typical_volume": 9441827.25, "trend": 22.613351, "fair_value": 25.538902, "relative_strength": -6.111575, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": 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34.631, "fair_value": 27.136166, "relative_strength": 27.670384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.243819, "energy": 63.712443, "activity_lines": [ 45.088, 43.006546, 39.122477, 36.977936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.52, "volume": 31257164, "typical_volume": 23755400.6, "trend": 34.960667, "fair_value": 27.249651, "relative_strength": 21.212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.295551, "energy": 42.954679, "activity_lines": [ 43.771333, 42.948, 39.530334, 37.357871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 29070532, "typical_volume": 24495946.15, "trend": 34.902667, "fair_value": 27.27889, "relative_strength": -11.840138, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.106166, "energy": 12.56254, "activity_lines": [ 37.923334, 40.43, 38.672858, 36.889441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 30140310, "typical_volume": 24939818.0, "trend": 34.707667, "fair_value": 27.295061, "relative_strength": -21.247793, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.553969, "energy": 34.730914, "activity_lines": [ 32.501334, 37.546001, 37.581001, 36.247334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.4, "volume": 34118797, "typical_volume": 25844746.45, "trend": 34.441, "fair_value": 27.306794, "relative_strength": -22.792269, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.405781, "energy": 42.129065, "activity_lines": [ 28.597334, 34.720182, 36.467905, 35.582323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.610001, "volume": 23360475, "typical_volume": 26472663.55, "trend": 34.324, "fair_value": 27.347792, "relative_strength": -14.621916, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.449283, "energy": 42.270819, "activity_lines": [ 27.094667, 32.884364, 35.684858, 35.141613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }