{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb430ba6-4195-41a1-be2a-3e810832ca97", "symbol": "HERS", "name": "Hera S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.334, "architecture_energy": 22.406, "architecture_maturity": 33.826, "architecture_confidence": 54.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.15, "rotation_up": 45.53, "upward_expansion": 36.11, "deceleration": 44.42, "rotation_down": 18.03, "downward_expansion": 44.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.847067, 3.80688, 3.78634, 3.8455 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 3.939947, "distance_from_trend": -0.022829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.468757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.364498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093264, "excess_performance": -0.267511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023819, "annualized_volatility": 0.191874, "from_high_reference": -0.129353, "from_low_reference": 0.069444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.939947, "fair_value_reference": 3.468757, "structural_low": 3.613179, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028574, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.107405, "worst_return": -0.032646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.121661, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00206, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173447, "worst_return": 0.069874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.255441, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255441, "worst_return": 0.255441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.224436, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224436, "worst_return": 0.224436, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010695, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061834, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 3.784, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 503.6, "trend": 3.94948, "fair_value": 3.459913, "relative_strength": -19.827877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.868778, "energy": 25.653257, "activity_lines": [ 3.842133, 3.788041, 3.784037, 3.851918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 378.6, "trend": 3.939947, "fair_value": 3.468757, "relative_strength": -20.364498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.33394, "energy": 22.405752, "activity_lines": [ 3.847067, 3.80688, 3.78634, 3.8455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }