{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb448ee0-9e2f-4e35-90ed-b08d7ca0db70", "symbol": "CS9", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ex Switzerland ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.251, "architecture_energy": 77.317, "architecture_maturity": 43.215, "architecture_confidence": 88.927, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 63.2, "upward_expansion": 88.85, "deceleration": 51.39, "rotation_down": 24.28, "downward_expansion": 15.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 402.904, 400.443036, 393.488063, 387.166609 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 409.869995, "trend_reference": 380.615165, "distance_from_trend": 0.076862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 329.859472, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242559, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.770983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095117, "excess_performance": 0.041806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069286, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04771, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095117, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223, "relative_activity": 0.221, "balance": 1.100083, "dry_up": 0.34364, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017004, "annualized_volatility": 0.162195, "from_high_reference": -0.000317, "from_low_reference": 0.255554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 380.615165, "fair_value_reference": 329.859472, "structural_low": 339.079803, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.01299, "positive_rate": 0.628571, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.003225, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.080617, "worst_return": -0.104092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023257, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.01284, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.086657, "worst_return": -0.064864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063674, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.013771, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165197, "worst_return": -0.119625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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1804.2, "trend": 375.142272, "fair_value": 326.84702, "relative_strength": 7.204525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.747035, "energy": 83.539026, "activity_lines": [ 398.244865, 393.909325, 385.328743, 380.849712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 395.829987, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 1653.45, "trend": 376.476405, "fair_value": 327.559543, "relative_strength": 6.42486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.935203, "energy": 78.771881, "activity_lines": [ 397.871332, 395.064385, 386.985999, 382.184403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 399.279999, "volume": 148, "typical_volume": 1244.4, "trend": 377.895298, "fair_value": 328.268234, "relative_strength": 6.67745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.875083, "energy": 76.358869, "activity_lines": [ 398.420665, 396.488428, 388.921444, 383.655603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 401.730011, "volume": 613, "typical_volume": 1110.25, "trend": 379.284116, "fair_value": 329.040539, "relative_strength": 5.381338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.673726, "energy": 60.574611, "activity_lines": [ 399.558002, 397.85786, 390.913806, 385.193326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 409.869995, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 1009.05, "trend": 380.615165, "fair_value": 329.859472, "relative_strength": 4.770983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.251293, "energy": 77.317003, "activity_lines": [ 402.904, 400.443036, 393.488063, 387.166609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }