{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb465fcc-8a68-4996-a6f7-7b0bf1cd79e9", "symbol": "ATLC", "name": "Atlanticus Holdings Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.319, "architecture_energy": 44.029, "architecture_maturity": 84.841, "architecture_confidence": 65.223, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.72, "rotation_up": 39.47, "upward_expansion": 73.43, "deceleration": 76.42, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 7.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.404667, 100.700545, 93.998476, 85.661355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 100.01, "trend_reference": 75.278667, "distance_from_trend": 0.32853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.995449, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.000382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.16524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.795834, "excess_performance": 0.60838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.32853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.000382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127333, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.271652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.795834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.653169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 922124, "relative_activity": 1.504149, "balance": 1.653169, "dry_up": 1.431044, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120984, "annualized_volatility": 0.569258, "from_high_reference": -0.125327, "from_low_reference": 1.105474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.278667, "fair_value_reference": 49.995449, "structural_low": 47.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.019304, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.010808, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.513721, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045241, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.055669, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.648091, "worst_return": -0.248646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.214273, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.088927, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.566822, "worst_return": -0.215742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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78.177613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.68, "volume": 884892, "typical_volume": 541376.15, "trend": 71.862333, "fair_value": 48.769551, "relative_strength": 37.035403, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.463223, "energy": 57.558617, "activity_lines": [ 100.705333, 97.187818, 88.074714, 80.10443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.48, "volume": 896283, "typical_volume": 568598.95, "trend": 72.840333, "fair_value": 49.150705, "relative_strength": 36.201613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.329916, "energy": 49.203613, "activity_lines": [ 100.074, 98.368364, 90.07481, 81.886215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.49, "volume": 805929, "typical_volume": 586914.6, "trend": 74.145, "fair_value": 49.583718, "relative_strength": 41.945003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.587124, "energy": 51.647415, "activity_lines": [ 101.488667, 100.235818, 92.434571, 83.992645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.01, "volume": 922124, "typical_volume": 613053.75, "trend": 75.278667, "fair_value": 49.995449, "relative_strength": 27.16524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.318902, "energy": 44.02852, "activity_lines": [ 101.404667, 100.700545, 93.998476, 85.661355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }