{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb4b2dac-4659-400b-afd1-b5a907779cfb", "symbol": "300853", "name": "Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.937, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.466, "architecture_energy": 37.252, "architecture_maturity": 4.898, "architecture_confidence": 57.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.88, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 55.39, "rotation_down": 65.94, "downward_expansion": 46.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.049333, 26.714727, 29.093524, 27.951548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.209999, "trend_reference": 26.258667, "distance_from_trend": 0.036229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.99122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.748704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.285309, "excess_performance": 0.27791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067487, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34787111, "relative_activity": 1.103538, "balance": 0.98696, "dry_up": 0.969909, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206881, "annualized_volatility": 0.834475, "from_high_reference": -0.333905, "from_low_reference": 0.554857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.258667, "fair_value_reference": 21.99122, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089076, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.081354, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.060415, "worst_return": -0.179506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209664, "worst_return": -0.176135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.159053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.838542, "worst_return": -0.287352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.349028, 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"2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149406, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -15.207922, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.113436, "energy": 33.440866, "activity_lines": [ 25.396667, 29.043819, 29.754572, 28.132258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.02, "volume": 27190881, "typical_volume": 30427763.15, "trend": 26.042333, "fair_value": 22.003746, "relative_strength": -9.279539, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.311859, "energy": 39.446293, "activity_lines": [ 23.57, 27.304, 29.177762, 27.876215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.209999, "volume": 34787111, "typical_volume": 31523244.6, "trend": 26.258667, "fair_value": 21.99122, "relative_strength": 6.748704, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.46589, "energy": 37.252287, "activity_lines": [ 24.049333, 26.714727, 29.093524, 27.951548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }