{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb4d8cce-d459-470c-91d1-d41b0f6df5ab", "symbol": "DXD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT DOW 30 (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.496, "architecture_energy": 61.913, "architecture_maturity": 52.986, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 26.36, "upward_expansion": 9.9, "deceleration": 54.33, "rotation_down": 57.38, "downward_expansion": 83.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.915333, 17.107527, 17.730537, 18.430452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.17, "trend_reference": 19.085576, "distance_from_trend": -0.152763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.860726, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.410695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140978, "excess_performance": -0.266603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.339308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6243890, "relative_activity": 0.736663, "balance": 0.339308, "dry_up": 0.444008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051629, "annualized_volatility": 0.234055, "from_high_reference": -0.326403, "from_low_reference": 0.026667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.085576, "fair_value_reference": 25.860726, "structural_low": 15.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.015642, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.030548, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.151088, "worst_return": -0.099174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.014015, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.042763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150383, "worst_return": -0.100664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.094069, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.186099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.239852, "worst_return": -0.158195, "sufficient": true 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.900555, "energy": 82.729998, "activity_lines": [ 17.2126, 17.603135, 18.543073, 19.018416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.35, "volume": 2810334, "typical_volume": 10979721.6, "trend": 19.365146, "fair_value": 26.195215, "relative_strength": -22.434507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.130115, "energy": 80.364975, "activity_lines": [ 17.200914, 17.489938, 18.346544, 18.882127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.51, "volume": 2287853, "typical_volume": 9734071.1, "trend": 19.287859, "fair_value": 26.089974, "relative_strength": -20.61845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.838496, "energy": 70.859127, "activity_lines": [ 17.279333, 17.437679, 18.17663, 18.762441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.16, "volume": 3711388, "typical_volume": 8704817.3, "trend": 19.187962, "fair_value": 25.977353, "relative_strength": -22.216332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.002497, "energy": 54.654645, "activity_lines": [ 17.25, 17.351624, 17.98973, 18.625159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.17, "volume": 6243890, "typical_volume": 8475906.3, "trend": 19.085576, "fair_value": 25.860726, "relative_strength": -28.410695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.496005, "energy": 61.91314, "activity_lines": [ 16.915333, 17.107527, 17.730537, 18.430452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }