{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb4dc3cd-adb7-4944-860c-ff27a09e7d0c", "symbol": "BKCH", "name": "GLOBAL X BLOCKCHAIN ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.07, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.491, "architecture_energy": 43.995, "architecture_maturity": 11.019, "architecture_confidence": 78.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.82, "rotation_up": 15.23, "upward_expansion": 23.18, "deceleration": 51.37, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 52.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.642, 69.134364, 73.963712, 72.649825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 65.23, "trend_reference": 71.50353, "distance_from_trend": -0.087737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.703054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.26406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02434, "excess_performance": -0.163113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.543561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02434, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225026, "relative_activity": 0.499131, "balance": 0.727554, "dry_up": 0.506489, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164813, "annualized_volatility": 0.591344, "from_high_reference": -0.46267, "from_low_reference": 0.27927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.50353, "fair_value_reference": 52.703054, "structural_low": 50.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.029474, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.248498, "worst_return": -0.241279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.57496, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.457289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.018021, "worst_return": 0.179021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.961788, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.735567, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.224885, "worst_return": -0.064358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.293458, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167879, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.62, "volume": 240829, "typical_volume": 476719.5, "trend": 72.01653, "fair_value": 52.247497, "relative_strength": -16.023582, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.098704, "energy": 29.197789, "activity_lines": [ 67.500667, 73.181818, 75.535863, 73.506065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.36, "volume": 161349, "typical_volume": 470131.25, "trend": 71.845197, "fair_value": 52.471955, "relative_strength": -19.270726, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.016514, "energy": 37.522171, "activity_lines": [ 66.135333, 70.979818, 74.764311, 73.076612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.23, "volume": 225026, "typical_volume": 450835.5, "trend": 71.50353, "fair_value": 52.703054, "relative_strength": -23.26406, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.490981, "energy": 43.994555, "activity_lines": [ 65.642, 69.134364, 73.963712, 72.649825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }