{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb50fa30-ca6b-43d7-81a6-d03638ebcb9c", "symbol": "GROV", "name": "Grove Collaborative Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.996, "architecture_energy": 59.366, "architecture_maturity": 41.861, "architecture_confidence": 91.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.98, "rotation_up": 12.34, "upward_expansion": 13.04, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 63.9, "downward_expansion": 86.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.084, 1.128727, 1.166095, 1.206753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.268, "distance_from_trend": -0.148265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.538782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.9021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294118, "excess_performance": -0.419743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170001, "relative_activity": 0.6328, "balance": 0.806149, "dry_up": 0.521944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130335, "annualized_volatility": 0.520881, "from_high_reference": -0.322884, "from_low_reference": 0.069307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.268, "fair_value_reference": 1.538782, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.050991, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": 0.019521, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.691332, "worst_return": -0.619425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.051471, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.090972, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.502825, "worst_return": -0.507356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116364, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.242647, "worst_return": -0.481494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.341837, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.658842, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.139535, "worst_return": -0.549425, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.342105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.156667, 1.180909, 1.205619, 1.243785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 91016, "typical_volume": 297390.3, "trend": 1.273667, "fair_value": 1.551026, "relative_strength": -26.405832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.740537, "energy": 56.66106, "activity_lines": [ 1.116, 1.158545, 1.19019, 1.230409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 92117, "typical_volume": 284743.7, "trend": 1.273, "fair_value": 1.545705, "relative_strength": -24.594066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.770049, "energy": 59.521105, "activity_lines": [ 1.096667, 1.144182, 1.178667, 1.219204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 170001, "typical_volume": 268648.65, "trend": 1.268, "fair_value": 1.538782, "relative_strength": -27.9021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.995818, "energy": 59.365707, "activity_lines": [ 1.084, 1.128727, 1.166095, 1.206753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }