{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb6308e2-bb3a-4a34-987c-61b24ae5f196", "symbol": "J5A", "name": "Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.538, "architecture_energy": 27.786, "architecture_maturity": 9.025, "architecture_confidence": 70.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.8, "rotation_up": 19.88, "upward_expansion": 5.19, "deceleration": 45.34, "rotation_down": 47.2, "downward_expansion": 73.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.972, 23.083273, 23.153357, 23.265183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.135, "trend_reference": 23.435167, "distance_from_trend": -0.012808, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.995019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.780297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.935528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00916, "excess_performance": -0.055479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.780297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00916, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.626869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9384, "relative_activity": 2.762031, "balance": 6.626869, "dry_up": 0.991391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029808, "annualized_volatility": 0.139063, "from_high_reference": -0.096289, "from_low_reference": 1.474067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.435167, "fair_value_reference": 12.995019, "structural_low": 22.084999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035034, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.039977, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.33416, "worst_return": -0.281457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.111869, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109919, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.741262, "worst_return": -0.40648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107513, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.171013, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.652413, "worst_return": -0.441341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.381453, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.463297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.15692, "worst_return": -0.42867, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181141, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043559, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.569307, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.415823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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23.215546, 23.321595, 23.465301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.094999, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 6227.6, "trend": 23.698667, "fair_value": 12.638128, "relative_strength": 8.508196, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.301203, "energy": 30.536551, "activity_lines": [ 23.181667, 23.196182, 23.285143, 23.429043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.235001, "volume": 9290, "typical_volume": 6079.25, "trend": 23.625833, "fair_value": 12.714795, "relative_strength": 10.92038, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.43761, "energy": 23.871152, "activity_lines": [ 23.198667, 23.203727, 23.264952, 23.399129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 892, "typical_volume": 5384.95, "trend": 23.618, "fair_value": 12.792199, "relative_strength": 13.369174, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.056683, "energy": 8.362683, "activity_lines": [ 23.412333, 23.312, 23.303571, 23.410365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.07, "volume": 1592, "typical_volume": 3434.9, "trend": 23.5625, "fair_value": 12.86582, "relative_strength": 7.614076, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.932928, "energy": 11.838266, "activity_lines": [ 23.336666, 23.274364, 23.273167, 23.375011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.215, "volume": 1605, "typical_volume": 3220.5, "trend": 23.489833, "fair_value": 12.928417, "relative_strength": 0.598041, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.785825, "energy": 35.906422, "activity_lines": [ 22.954667, 23.084636, 23.165762, 23.288075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.135, "volume": 9384, "typical_volume": 3397.5, "trend": 23.435167, "fair_value": 12.995019, "relative_strength": 0.935528, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.538032, "energy": 27.785665, "activity_lines": [ 22.972, 23.083273, 23.153357, 23.265183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }