{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eb63f263-9eaf-4eec-b93f-2380ba66cbae",
    "symbol": "TEG",
    "name": "TAG Immobilien AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 64.288,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -47.5,
    "architecture_energy": 34.999,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.937,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.063,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.8,
        "rotation_up": 18.09,
        "upward_expansion": 8.04,
        "deceleration": 40.85,
        "rotation_down": 50.13,
        "downward_expansion": 76.7
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.596,
        13.658,
        13.788703,
        13.881063
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 13.86,
    "trend_reference": 14.02421,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.011709,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.15638,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053481,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.51047,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.025851,
    "excess_performance": -0.090491,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011709,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00656,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053481,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050283,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085105,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068097,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025851,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.138714,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1716759,
      "relative_activity": 0.828824,
      "balance": 1.138714,
      "dry_up": 0.907556,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.051895,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.372195,
      "from_high_reference": -0.151678,
      "from_low_reference": 0.184688
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.02421,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.15638,
      "structural_low": 11.699278,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.011221,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021004,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.294753,
        "worst_return": -0.094028,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.041863,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023699,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.313751,
        "worst_return": -0.150452,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.030577,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016633,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
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        "worst_return": -0.296757,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.051959,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000267,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.583245,
        "worst_return": -0.700799,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.106072,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.084615,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "return": -0.094167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.022191,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.006896,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 2972168.95,
        "trend": 13.92562,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 2962706.3,
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        "relative_strength": -3.337103,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 2853193.6,
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        "fair_value": 12.875996,
        "relative_strength": -9.305987,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 2780291.55,
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        "relative_strength": -7.032911,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 12.985654,
        "relative_strength": -1.559658,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 30.663482,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 14.48,
        "volume": 525867,
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        "fair_value": 13.02555,
        "relative_strength": -3.219597,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 2414461,
        "typical_volume": 2477557.35,
        "trend": 13.951043,
        "fair_value": 13.055186,
        "relative_strength": -6.39694,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 7.567029,
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          13.906,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 13.25,
        "volume": 1881276,
        "typical_volume": 2415873.9,
        "trend": 13.969992,
        "fair_value": 13.07967,
        "relative_strength": -7.787728,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.978609,
        "energy": 20.121239,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.72,
          13.716509,
          13.850907,
          13.959004
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.1,
        "volume": 1788747,
        "typical_volume": 2331589.65,
        "trend": 13.985887,
        "fair_value": 13.102398,
        "relative_strength": -9.668626,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.575384,
        "energy": 41.530976,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.491333,
          13.596909,
          13.779124,
          13.902875
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.81,
        "volume": 2132568,
        "typical_volume": 2277832.05,
        "trend": 14.022206,
        "fair_value": 13.130629,
        "relative_strength": -6.604821,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.543816,
        "energy": 43.865282,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.525333,
          13.620364,
          13.783525,
          13.891528
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.86,
        "volume": 1716759,
        "typical_volume": 2071318.75,
        "trend": 14.02421,
        "fair_value": 13.15638,
        "relative_strength": -8.51047,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.499706,
        "energy": 34.999322,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.596,
          13.658,
          13.788703,
          13.881063
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}