{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb65d4bc-9860-443f-bd35-b9facfdd922b", "symbol": "RRU", "name": "Rolls-Royce Holdings plc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.524, "architecture_energy": 56.067, "architecture_maturity": 32.554, "architecture_confidence": 90.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.42, "rotation_up": 61.2, "upward_expansion": 81.32, "deceleration": 57.71, "rotation_down": 20.54, "downward_expansion": 7.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.061164, 16.788812, 15.919065, 15.445975 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.924, "trend_reference": 15.000517, "distance_from_trend": 0.194892, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.740013, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.050798, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.442929, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.265247, "excess_performance": 0.200607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.194892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.050798, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.174429, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092367, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.265247, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.129795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 610875, "relative_activity": 0.669296, "balance": 2.129795, "dry_up": 0.818434, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061563, "annualized_volatility": 0.398056, "from_high_reference": -0.029141, "from_low_reference": 0.551018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.000517, "fair_value_reference": 8.740013, "structural_low": 12.532585, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.044082, "positive_rate": 0.72973, "directional_follow_through": 0.72973, "median_excess_return": 0.026113, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.402618, "worst_return": -0.19177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.134729, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.136673, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.487971, "worst_return": -0.031691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.461782, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.406066, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.6357, "worst_return": 0.26914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.658101, 14.939937, 14.749526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.780649, "volume": 891284, "typical_volume": 991653.55, "trend": 14.59851, "fair_value": 8.363124, "relative_strength": 18.028591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.619952, "energy": 78.717088, "activity_lines": [ 16.694764, 15.97039, 15.141151, 14.89953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.086937, "volume": 600847, "typical_volume": 952150.3, "trend": 14.687766, "fair_value": 8.454875, "relative_strength": 13.577989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.087143, "energy": 71.107484, "activity_lines": [ 16.592729, 16.101848, 15.270204, 14.995558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.415852, "volume": 553544, "typical_volume": 916801.7, "trend": 14.792634, "fair_value": 8.545812, "relative_strength": 13.951399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.271901, "energy": 63.851867, "activity_lines": [ 16.533604, 16.257273, 15.428933, 15.107047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.023847, "volume": 1222713, "typical_volume": 922851.2, "trend": 14.90183, "fair_value": 8.640211, "relative_strength": 15.181583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.838318, "energy": 49.005567, "activity_lines": [ 16.668087, 16.464518, 15.63789, 15.250996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.924, "volume": 610875, "typical_volume": 912712.75, "trend": 15.000517, "fair_value": 8.740013, "relative_strength": 17.442929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.524107, "energy": 56.066712, "activity_lines": [ 17.061164, 16.788812, 15.919065, 15.445975 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }