{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb65e7a4-bcf3-4921-9629-78b971aaa6b8", "symbol": "MOL", "name": "Meghmani Organics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.619, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.827, "architecture_energy": 30.146, "architecture_maturity": 29.066, "architecture_confidence": 47.603, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.68, "rotation_up": 55.87, "upward_expansion": 48.28, "deceleration": 34.77, "rotation_down": 25.65, "downward_expansion": 18.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.189333, 50.697455, 50.441333, 50.08 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 52.619999, "trend_reference": 50.678, "distance_from_trend": 0.03832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.77718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.70917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014422, "excess_performance": 0.029287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022837, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4379140, "relative_activity": 0.655476, "balance": 0.651028, "dry_up": 1.906278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077376, "annualized_volatility": 0.532396, "from_high_reference": -0.407966, "from_low_reference": 0.441644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.678, "fair_value_reference": 76.77718, "structural_low": 36.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005348, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011942, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.163643, "worst_return": -0.19897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014986, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.037945, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.130308, "worst_return": -0.359299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13347, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.147247, "worst_return": -0.167439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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54.459999, "volume": 26291679, "typical_volume": 6077005.85, "trend": 51.289, "fair_value": 77.167564, "relative_strength": -8.759362, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.907069, "energy": 6.650401, "activity_lines": [ 49.710667, 49.27, 49.653714, 49.803634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.880001, "volume": 17788145, "typical_volume": 6688416.15, "trend": 50.927333, "fair_value": 76.973526, "relative_strength": -10.898635, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.750032, "energy": 14.252706, "activity_lines": [ 51.310667, 50.13, 50.132619, 49.970796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.619999, "volume": 4379140, "typical_volume": 6680859.45, "trend": 50.678, "fair_value": 76.77718, "relative_strength": -12.70917, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.82681, "energy": 30.146216, "activity_lines": [ 52.189333, 50.697455, 50.441333, 50.08 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }