{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb6a6ece-7e5b-4a23-95f2-95313c477079", "symbol": "DB61", "name": "Xtrackers - ShortDAX x2 Daily Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.358, "architecture_energy": 74.482, "architecture_maturity": 31.326, "architecture_confidence": 92.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 18.51, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 38.99, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 88.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.468933, 0.47776, 0.491651, 0.505601 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.4428, "trend_reference": 0.515827, "distance_from_trend": -0.141572, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.755934, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.414235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.976275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138521, "excess_performance": -0.312768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141572, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.414235, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054322, "annualized_volatility": 0.384341, "from_high_reference": -0.315187, "from_low_reference": 0.001583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.515827, "fair_value_reference": 0.755934, "structural_low": 0.4421, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.016673, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.043034, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.135059, "worst_return": -0.202673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.079238, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.107055, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111179, "worst_return": -0.235508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.135457, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.249287, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.014047, "worst_return": -0.27977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.347674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003862, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.714179, "energy": 62.551716, "activity_lines": [ 0.487987, 0.495016, 0.514527, 0.519627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.4877, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.521607, "fair_value": 0.772038, "relative_strength": -25.74355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.306156, "energy": 58.97737, "activity_lines": [ 0.486167, 0.492318, 0.510744, 0.51734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4981, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.520557, "fair_value": 0.768237, "relative_strength": -22.153167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.822268, "energy": 50.142123, "activity_lines": [ 0.488647, 0.492158, 0.507977, 0.515823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4879, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.519217, "fair_value": 0.764617, "relative_strength": -24.239869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.120341, "energy": 53.65519, "activity_lines": [ 0.488293, 0.490558, 0.5042, 0.513716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4681, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.517467, "fair_value": 0.760417, "relative_strength": -26.58179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.851352, "energy": 48.941051, "activity_lines": [ 0.481533, 0.486224, 0.498893, 0.510418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4428, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.515827, "fair_value": 0.755934, "relative_strength": -31.976275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.357964, "energy": 74.481563, "activity_lines": [ 0.468933, 0.47776, 0.491651, 0.505601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }