{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eb6f935e-bbe4-4e90-a38b-d651c701bc5e",
    "symbol": "SPXD",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.251,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.847,
    "architecture_energy": 66.858,
    "architecture_maturity": 88.623,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.685,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.71,
        "rotation_up": 53.25,
        "upward_expansion": 82.84,
        "deceleration": 71.4,
        "rotation_down": 29.1,
        "downward_expansion": 11.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        58.571695
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 62.220001,
    "trend_reference": 56.998914,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.0916,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 48.421862,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284957,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.341311,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.153352,
    "excess_performance": -0.01754,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0916,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04029,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.284957,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030119,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033413,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010766,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.153352,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.340442,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 51634,
      "relative_activity": 1.74332,
      "balance": 2.340442,
      "dry_up": 1.591876,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01787,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.11761,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004639,
      "from_low_reference": 0.242458
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 56.998914,
      "fair_value_reference": 48.421862,
      "structural_low": 51.5,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.013027,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005594,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.079797,
        "worst_return": -0.102076,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
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        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.733333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001928,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.126034,
        "worst_return": -0.177991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00464,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
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        "worst_return": -0.086248,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": 0.060304,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-11-24",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 26840.6,
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        "fair_value": 47.958562,
        "relative_strength": -2.894446,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 65.093835,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 89775,
        "typical_volume": 30698.45,
        "trend": 56.56793,
        "fair_value": 48.10853,
        "relative_strength": -2.543867,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 59.84,
        "volume": 10031,
        "typical_volume": 27506.15,
        "trend": 56.767351,
        "fair_value": 48.25658,
        "relative_strength": -4.364738,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.804404,
        "energy": 58.822212,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 62.220001,
        "volume": 51634,
        "typical_volume": 29618.2,
        "trend": 56.998914,
        "fair_value": 48.421862,
        "relative_strength": -3.341311,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 66.85849,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}