{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb782134-75a4-4ba3-a85d-909bcdfe2a67", "symbol": "TF", "name": "Timbercreek Financial Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.949, "architecture_energy": 81.341, "architecture_maturity": 10.767, "architecture_confidence": 82.602, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.5, "rotation_up": 8.51, "upward_expansion": 19.18, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 81.63, "downward_expansion": 97.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.173106, 6.289968, 6.3936, 6.458936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.17, "trend_reference": 6.560908, "distance_from_trend": -0.059581, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.251281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013002, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.552242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106556, "excess_performance": -0.226977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1052900, "relative_activity": 1.281891, "balance": 0.682011, "dry_up": 1.476475, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027195, "annualized_volatility": 0.152999, "from_high_reference": -0.141001, "from_low_reference": 0.038025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.560908, "fair_value_reference": 6.251281, "structural_low": 6.013399, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01173, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.00793, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.118144, "worst_return": -0.097633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008405, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030341, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.147805, "worst_return": -0.057327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014351, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.016843, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.211419, "worst_return": -0.07063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00753, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045419, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.330414, "volume": 1149600, "typical_volume": 825445.0, "trend": 6.614101, "fair_value": 6.241357, "relative_strength": -14.775227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.010302, "energy": 57.012915, "activity_lines": [ 6.436623, 6.465035, 6.5044, 6.552023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.132279, "volume": 1355200, "typical_volume": 803055.0, "trend": 6.600012, "fair_value": 6.243971, "relative_strength": -17.042251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.174918, "energy": 76.964561, "activity_lines": [ 6.324614, 6.405025, 6.466961, 6.520938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 1293200, "typical_volume": 812655.0, "trend": 6.581015, "fair_value": 6.2477, "relative_strength": -17.152194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.770743, "energy": 85.626229, "activity_lines": [ 6.214488, 6.333077, 6.423614, 6.485454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.17, "volume": 1052900, "typical_volume": 821365.0, "trend": 6.560908, "fair_value": 6.251281, "relative_strength": -17.552242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.949431, "energy": 81.34122, "activity_lines": [ 6.173106, 6.289968, 6.3936, 6.458936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }