{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb896e8b-58ba-4702-a3bf-d72c3e0bdd51", "symbol": "LGHT", "name": "SPINNAKER ETF SERIES LANGAR GLOBAL HEALTHTECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.004, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.534, "architecture_energy": 11.003, "architecture_maturity": 15.227, "architecture_confidence": 42.92, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.87, "rotation_up": 37.08, "upward_expansion": 37.44, "deceleration": 34.58, "rotation_down": 21.07, "downward_expansion": 43.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.683987, 8.628516, 8.505527, 8.596024 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.0552, "trend_reference": 8.84453, "distance_from_trend": 0.023819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.9832, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092956, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.683489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055254, "excess_performance": -0.180879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023819, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092956, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107533, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.520859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5889, "relative_activity": 0.324134, "balance": 1.520859, "dry_up": 0.788567, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04119, "annualized_volatility": 0.238701, "from_high_reference": -0.150942, "from_low_reference": 0.140769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.84453, "fair_value_reference": 9.9832, "structural_low": 7.9378, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017254, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016497, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008517, "worst_return": -0.084489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.090739, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.142396, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.04858, "worst_return": -0.132898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.175021, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.28063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.175021, "worst_return": -0.175021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064566, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 10.0979, "volume": 147904, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 10.0501, "volume": 43198, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.968098, "energy": 21.364663, "activity_lines": [ 8.5175, 8.472067, 8.433127, 8.603195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.6604, "volume": 12283, "typical_volume": 17904.75, "trend": 8.891303, "fair_value": 9.990125, "relative_strength": -16.064372, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.191665, "energy": 8.574132, "activity_lines": [ 8.536807, 8.518293, 8.450079, 8.58545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0552, "volume": 5889, "typical_volume": 18168.4, "trend": 8.84453, "fair_value": 9.9832, "relative_strength": -14.683489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.534031, "energy": 11.002801, "activity_lines": [ 8.683987, 8.628516, 8.505527, 8.596024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }