{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb8aca93-be66-41bb-9094-1ccf0a291597", "symbol": "STPU", "name": "Amundi US Curve steepening 2-10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.146, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.1, "architecture_energy": 81.795, "architecture_maturity": 10.83, "architecture_confidence": 68.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.92, "rotation_up": 77.96, "upward_expansion": 95.47, "deceleration": 42.96, "rotation_down": 9.51, "downward_expansion": 19.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.255335, 85.991637, 85.503572, 85.289893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 85.940002, "trend_reference": 85.058, "distance_from_trend": 0.010369, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.900577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.53926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014161, "excess_performance": -0.156731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016016, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014161, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 801, "relative_activity": 1.045283, "balance": 5.644, "dry_up": 0.626387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005299, "annualized_volatility": 0.056451, "from_high_reference": -0.007621, "from_low_reference": 0.032684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.058, "fair_value_reference": 86.900577, "structural_low": 83.75, 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"activity_lines": [ 85.297334, 85.093273, 84.919476, 84.867656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 86.050003, "volume": 6298, "typical_volume": 836.95, "trend": 84.884666, "fair_value": 86.79718, "relative_strength": -13.230958, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.437014, "energy": 86.906821, "activity_lines": [ 85.601335, 85.298001, 85.034048, 84.945484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.18, "volume": 93, "typical_volume": 827.85, "trend": 84.928, "fair_value": 86.831539, "relative_strength": -11.462198, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.761371, "energy": 91.735668, "activity_lines": [ 85.859334, 85.493092, 85.152714, 85.029054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.599998, "volume": 681, "typical_volume": 815.85, "trend": 85.002, "fair_value": 86.861603, "relative_strength": -10.526552, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.429142, "energy": 95.99153, "activity_lines": [ 86.174, 85.731455, 85.299762, 85.136925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.480003, "volume": 345, "typical_volume": 752.45, "trend": 85.047, "fair_value": 86.884808, "relative_strength": -10.833901, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.79939, "energy": 90.960793, "activity_lines": [ 86.350001, 85.920001, 85.427476, 85.23228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.940002, "volume": 801, "typical_volume": 766.3, "trend": 85.058, "fair_value": 86.900577, "relative_strength": -13.53926, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.100231, "energy": 81.794746, "activity_lines": [ 86.255335, 85.991637, 85.503572, 85.289893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }