{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb8cee38-3e41-4017-8884-e9fc607b1d2b", "symbol": "F2NV34", "name": "Franco-Nevada Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.894, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.215, "architecture_energy": 19.91, "architecture_maturity": 52.795, "architecture_confidence": 72.421, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.02, "rotation_up": 28.71, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 43.4, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 62.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.192667, 6.129642, 6.227934, 6.425866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.67, "trend_reference": 6.687485, "distance_from_trend": -0.002615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.773023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397437, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.288613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01367, "excess_performance": 0.043378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002886, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126498, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.006652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1793, "relative_activity": 0.144, "balance": 2.006652, "dry_up": 0.172893, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056839, "annualized_volatility": 0.393334, "from_high_reference": -0.224419, "from_low_reference": 0.285218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.687485, "fair_value_reference": 4.773023, "structural_low": 5.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003978, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.07, "worst_return": -0.079417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00693, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023555, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.204914, "worst_return": -0.082804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.032362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016053, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.300813, "worst_return": -0.23609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-10.397721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.220929, "energy": 60.364469, "activity_lines": [ 5.944667, 6.033477, 6.240553, 6.468999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.06, "volume": 3105, "typical_volume": 15985.55, "trend": 6.696893, "fair_value": 4.754685, "relative_strength": -11.660661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.096559, "energy": 54.283389, "activity_lines": [ 5.962667, 6.024193, 6.201934, 6.427601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.67, "volume": 1793, "typical_volume": 12451.35, "trend": 6.687485, "fair_value": 4.773023, "relative_strength": 0.288613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.214754, "energy": 19.910413, "activity_lines": [ 6.192667, 6.129642, 6.227934, 6.425866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }