{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb9130c0-ad08-42e8-9653-ac926db840e0", "symbol": "00670L", "name": "Fubon NASDAQ-100 2X Leveraged Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.257, "architecture_energy": 22.639, "architecture_maturity": 72.69, "architecture_confidence": 73.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.27, "rotation_up": 22.41, "upward_expansion": 49.16, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 32.34, "downward_expansion": 24.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 193.86, 197.570908, 198.152619, 189.383978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 200.649994, "trend_reference": 178.971667, "distance_from_trend": 0.121127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.321795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.516379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.476552, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.212387, "excess_performance": -0.166925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.516379, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212387, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879067, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2946580, "relative_activity": 0.552737, "balance": 0.879067, "dry_up": 0.713733, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062259, "annualized_volatility": 0.390974, "from_high_reference": -0.10842, "from_low_reference": 0.555426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.971667, "fair_value_reference": 132.321795, "structural_low": 129.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026507, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.009697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.203598, "worst_return": -0.191388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111742, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014867, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.268677, "worst_return": -0.244037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.213052, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.052622, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368777, "worst_return": -0.159564, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 188.850006, "volume": 3858233, "typical_volume": 5703126.85, "trend": 176.99, "fair_value": 130.987179, "relative_strength": -17.556294, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.532541, "energy": 27.659436, "activity_lines": [ 195.196668, 201.184546, 196.566905, 187.178387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 188.25, "volume": 4500643, "typical_volume": 5472532.95, "trend": 177.723334, "fair_value": 131.616346, "relative_strength": -16.256581, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.234166, "energy": 26.118484, "activity_lines": [ 192.080002, 198.061819, 196.863095, 187.904839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 200.649994, "volume": 2946580, "typical_volume": 5330888.55, "trend": 178.971667, "fair_value": 132.321795, "relative_strength": -12.476552, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.257027, "energy": 22.639349, "activity_lines": [ 193.86, 197.570908, 198.152619, 189.383978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }