{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb91dfd7-c72c-4f0f-8c9d-dff12d82f1e5", "symbol": "IICE", "name": "Invesco S&P International Developed ESG Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.328, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.661, "architecture_energy": 62.269, "architecture_maturity": 52.14, "architecture_confidence": 73.384, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 59.1, "upward_expansion": 83.23, "deceleration": 62.43, "rotation_down": 24.95, "downward_expansion": 9.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.764667, 27.615621, 27.201002, 26.797692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.200001, "trend_reference": 26.370513, "distance_from_trend": 0.069376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.30326, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.886664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098981, "excess_performance": -0.021441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098981, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.037995, "balance": 0.247266, "dry_up": 0.111894, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01889, "annualized_volatility": 0.187545, "from_high_reference": -0.004237, "from_low_reference": 0.258358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.370513, "fair_value_reference": 21.30326, "structural_low": 23.889104, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.008492, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002769, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.060795, "worst_return": -0.107889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041912, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.009702, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.098882, "worst_return": -0.039522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.092208, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.013513, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.15093, "worst_return": -0.009885, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.083625, "energy": 84.298001, "activity_lines": [ 27.529421, 27.254455, 26.706465, 26.405519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.23, "volume": 601, "typical_volume": 4413.8, "trend": 26.08478, "fair_value": 21.091606, "relative_strength": -1.481511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.402187, "energy": 65.592269, "activity_lines": [ 27.441605, 27.294808, 26.799835, 26.48522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.41, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 3624.1, "trend": 26.180033, "fair_value": 21.159679, "relative_strength": -1.034839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.393568, "energy": 50.652442, "activity_lines": [ 27.409627, 27.354433, 26.909316, 26.570718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.780001, "volume": 177, "typical_volume": 3262.45, "trend": 26.281871, "fair_value": 21.230123, "relative_strength": 0.754324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.070752, "energy": 55.385566, "activity_lines": [ 27.516, 27.455573, 27.042243, 26.673942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2631.95, "trend": 26.370513, "fair_value": 21.30326, "relative_strength": -0.886664, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.660937, "energy": 62.268682, "activity_lines": [ 27.764667, 27.615621, 27.201002, 26.797692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }