{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb92566a-217f-42cf-949a-98deedf4fbb4", "symbol": "SMOT", "name": "VanEck Morningstar US SMID Moat UCITS ETF A Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.191, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.212, "architecture_energy": 65.896, "architecture_maturity": 83.848, "architecture_confidence": 61.366, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.27, "rotation_up": 55.21, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.554666, 22.513909, 22.024247, 21.618348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.504999, "trend_reference": 21.219233, "distance_from_trend": 0.060594, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.339202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.17509, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093537, "excess_performance": -0.077354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060594, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075243, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.090124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.090124, "dry_up": 1.584778, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012219, "annualized_volatility": 0.091753, "from_high_reference": -0.022372, "from_low_reference": 0.149152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.219233, "fair_value_reference": 20.339202, "structural_low": 19.584, 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20.4469, "fair_value": 20.147325, "relative_strength": -8.32087, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.636106, "energy": 62.475948, "activity_lines": [ 20.782, 20.541564, 20.506243, 20.498871 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 20.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 358.0, "trend": 20.4649, "fair_value": 20.153873, "relative_strength": -8.782529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.962576, "energy": 79.797861, "activity_lines": [ 20.856, 20.642164, 20.541495, 20.529394 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 21.405001, "volume": 282, "typical_volume": 372.1, "trend": 20.495233, "fair_value": 20.164387, "relative_strength": -7.448057, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.809337, "energy": 91.392305, "activity_lines": [ 21.048667, 20.815946, 20.620795, 20.590045 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", 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21.885, 21.498273, 21.018434, 20.877725 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.49, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 358.3, "trend": 20.7974, "fair_value": 20.229325, "relative_strength": -4.273845, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.301508, "energy": 97.975413, "activity_lines": [ 22.149667, 21.733364, 21.182067, 20.992675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.684999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 363.3, "trend": 20.8684, "fair_value": 20.249129, "relative_strength": -6.020408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.922328, "energy": 97.470021, "activity_lines": [ 22.374667, 21.963636, 21.355176, 21.114456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.610001, "volume": 2921, "typical_volume": 446.45, "trend": 20.939067, "fair_value": 20.268016, "relative_strength": -5.678737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.572717, "energy": 93.470523, "activity_lines": [ 22.489334, 22.145455, 21.511119, 21.226817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.57, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 435.25, "trend": 21.012233, "fair_value": 20.286286, "relative_strength": -4.291586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.138006, "energy": 88.759842, "activity_lines": [ 22.557667, 22.286546, 21.654372, 21.332039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.674999, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 435.0, "trend": 21.083567, "fair_value": 20.305095, "relative_strength": -3.488771, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.393743, "energy": 85.962949, "activity_lines": [ 22.623, 22.414, 21.798362, 21.439314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.504999, "volume": 3335, "typical_volume": 596.75, "trend": 21.1514, "fair_value": 20.322281, "relative_strength": -4.650719, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.170873, "energy": 67.849565, "activity_lines": [ 22.589333, 22.478363, 21.917043, 21.531019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.504999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 591.25, "trend": 21.219233, "fair_value": 20.339202, "relative_strength": -7.17509, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.211916, "energy": 65.895806, "activity_lines": [ 22.554666, 22.513909, 22.024247, 21.618348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }