{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb93d72b-f62b-41b8-a84f-77ea786894c6", "symbol": "ICG", "name": "Incergo S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.452, "architecture_energy": 73.462, "architecture_maturity": 57.878, "architecture_confidence": 76.669, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.52, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 74.93, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.618, 1.633091, 1.679143, 1.708 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 1.737667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.899744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.224646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052941, "excess_performance": -0.227188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.833333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009078, "annualized_volatility": 0.112077, "from_high_reference": -0.225962, "from_low_reference": 0.00625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.737667, "fair_value_reference": 1.899744, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.033398, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.191919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03029, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.121148, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075516, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.308185, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.055556, "worst_return": -0.095477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.145729, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.659636, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.145729, "worst_return": -0.145729, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052941, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"relative_strength": -25.24372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.910155, "energy": 78.527324, "activity_lines": [ 1.636667, 1.653636, 1.702619, 1.725699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.61, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 1.744, "fair_value": 1.901667, "relative_strength": -24.605401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.312668, "energy": 76.566373, "activity_lines": [ 1.626, 1.641636, 1.690429, 1.716645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 1.737667, "fair_value": 1.899744, "relative_strength": -26.224646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.452201, "energy": 73.461709, "activity_lines": [ 1.618, 1.633091, 1.679143, 1.708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }