{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb99c1c4-be82-4c44-b28c-263bc8ba61a1", "symbol": "583", "name": "Progen Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.776, "architecture_energy": 60.023, "architecture_maturity": 25.908, "architecture_confidence": 93.298, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 20.67, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 45.28, "rotation_down": 58.47, "downward_expansion": 80.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.025382, 0.026229, 0.026684 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.027367, "distance_from_trend": -0.123021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.454869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.265946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188000, "relative_activity": 0.173075, "balance": 0.562449, "dry_up": 0.177586, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048077, "annualized_volatility": 0.251845, "from_high_reference": -0.351351, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027367, "fair_value_reference": 0.03316, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": -0.006055, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.205882, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.025321, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.030403, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.236842, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062369, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.16129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.041, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 464145.0, "trend": 0.047233, "fair_value": 0.043481, "relative_strength": -9.457047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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0.025533, 0.026182, 0.026938, 0.027333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 1197375.0, "trend": 0.0278, "fair_value": 0.033474, "relative_strength": -25.757649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.313046, "energy": 80.305442, "activity_lines": [ 0.025267, 0.025873, 0.026719, 0.027146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.026, "volume": 577600, "typical_volume": 1142085.0, "trend": 0.027767, "fair_value": 0.033353, "relative_strength": -23.244845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.040294, "energy": 61.184094, "activity_lines": [ 0.025467, 0.0258, 0.026614, 0.02703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1102090.0, "trend": 0.0276, "fair_value": 0.033263, "relative_strength": -23.276123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.870768, "energy": 48.840166, "activity_lines": [ 0.025667, 0.025764, 0.026514, 0.026916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 188000, "typical_volume": 1086235.0, "trend": 0.027367, "fair_value": 0.03316, "relative_strength": -29.454869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.776441, "energy": 60.023384, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.025382, 0.026229, 0.026684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }