{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb9d7e23-7dd1-4df9-90ee-2e8ee6a30a58", "symbol": "CDZ", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF Common Class", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.258, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.379, "architecture_energy": 66.592, "architecture_maturity": 54.464, "architecture_confidence": 73.622, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 63.09, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.51, "rotation_down": 22.19, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.039037, 46.771404, 46.038018, 45.28177 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.630001, "trend_reference": 44.271042, "distance_from_trend": 0.053284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.165149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289363, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.966694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107005, "excess_performance": -0.013416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013501, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28108, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98400, "relative_activity": 1.284931, "balance": 1.28108, "dry_up": 1.298642, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013907, "annualized_volatility": 0.078984, "from_high_reference": -0.022432, "from_low_reference": 0.207588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.271042, "fair_value_reference": 36.165149, "structural_low": 41.8393, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012379, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.002254, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.050888, "worst_return": -0.060408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011772, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.003907, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.139786, "worst_return": -0.040335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029124, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.010967, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.115159, "worst_return": -0.028722, "sufficient": true }, { 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92.089748, "energy": 85.114735, "activity_lines": [ 46.678614, 46.280335, 45.379555, 44.661387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.57547, "volume": 64900, "typical_volume": 74910.0, "trend": 43.862899, "fair_value": 35.930405, "relative_strength": 1.555244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.665124, "energy": 85.576952, "activity_lines": [ 47.070021, 46.579526, 45.668099, 44.913055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.029999, "volume": 143900, "typical_volume": 77080.0, "trend": 44.082024, "fair_value": 36.049576, "relative_strength": 0.913038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.221692, "energy": 70.621642, "activity_lines": [ 47.154888, 46.724783, 45.883425, 45.117384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.630001, "volume": 98400, "typical_volume": 76580.0, "trend": 44.271042, "fair_value": 36.165149, "relative_strength": -2.966694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.379412, "energy": 66.591619, "activity_lines": [ 47.039037, 46.771404, 46.038018, 45.28177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }