{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eb9da9d1-3f32-4f27-bfea-6578c6dddcd7", "symbol": "EALT3", "name": "Electro A\u00e7o Altona S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.212, "architecture_energy": 93.179, "architecture_maturity": 26.489, "architecture_confidence": 76.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.04, "upward_expansion": 21.59, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 86.76, "downward_expansion": 99.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.192, 12.441091, 12.81596, 13.075392 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 13.41325, "distance_from_trend": -0.106108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.130807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.913608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132124, "excess_performance": -0.075076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011607, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035341, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132124, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1900, "relative_activity": 1.229018, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.840907, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024187, "annualized_volatility": 0.166818, "from_high_reference": -0.225545, "from_low_reference": 0.023038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.41325, "fair_value_reference": 12.130807, "structural_low": 11.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008072, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.011924, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.222494, "worst_return": -0.178357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004304, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254667, "worst_return": -0.146669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094873, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079517, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.317333, "worst_return": -0.226033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-06-12", "close": 12.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3915.95, "trend": 13.691184, "fair_value": 11.880108, "relative_strength": -16.239349, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.295137, "energy": 78.560162, "activity_lines": [ 13.126, 13.31853, 13.507433, 13.633996 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.95, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3680.95, "trend": 13.688964, "fair_value": 11.913905, "relative_strength": -10.587145, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.604658, "energy": 73.962669, "activity_lines": [ 13.018, 13.231966, 13.437403, 13.586177 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.95, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 2845.95, "trend": 13.686745, "fair_value": 11.9489, "relative_strength": -12.353641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.170021, "energy": 74.463488, "activity_lines": [ 12.946667, 13.15755, 13.373325, 13.538502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2640.95, "trend": 13.669992, "fair_value": 11.980658, "relative_strength": -13.227879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.56846, "energy": 79.903148, "activity_lines": [ 12.862, 13.06514, 13.299082, 13.481293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.74, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2555.95, "trend": 13.641379, "fair_value": 12.01263, "relative_strength": -14.586281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.986355, "energy": 85.722297, "activity_lines": [ 12.803333, 12.976364, 13.224383, 13.421293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.7, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 2025.95, "trend": 13.616691, "fair_value": 12.044346, "relative_strength": -12.094869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.911824, "energy": 86.025862, "activity_lines": [ 12.780667, 12.896364, 13.153295, 13.360559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.25, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 1885.95, "trend": 13.563199, "fair_value": 12.074673, "relative_strength": -14.584757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.717963, "energy": 93.34192, "activity_lines": [ 12.588, 12.750727, 13.047245, 13.272386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.01, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1615.95, "trend": 13.490201, "fair_value": 12.102505, "relative_strength": -17.302413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.786339, "energy": 95.200594, "activity_lines": [ 12.362, 12.584182, 12.928374, 13.172179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 1545.95, "trend": 13.41325, "fair_value": 12.130807, "relative_strength": -13.913608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.211725, "energy": 93.179417, "activity_lines": [ 12.192, 12.441091, 12.81596, 13.075392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }