{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eba3ea7e-676b-4f45-82df-7efaba04cff4", "symbol": "000882", "name": "Beijing Hualian Department Store Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.669, "architecture_energy": 35.125, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.075, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.33, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 17.11, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 64.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.386667, 1.373818, 1.42519, 1.503376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 1.632333, "distance_from_trend": -0.136206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.813269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.381494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.280612, "excess_performance": -0.288012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244062921, "relative_activity": 1.000983, "balance": 0.532783, "dry_up": 1.254806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075832, "annualized_volatility": 0.276892, "from_high_reference": -0.422131, "from_low_reference": 0.101562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.632333, "fair_value_reference": 1.813269, "structural_low": 1.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.037887, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.189024, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027322, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.084887, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.401786, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011111, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.109032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.17757, "worst_return": -0.377907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.506952, 1.609935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.35, "volume": 322302800, "typical_volume": 233610465.35, "trend": 1.73, "fair_value": 1.821474, "relative_strength": -35.097882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.7139, "energy": 78.481439, "activity_lines": [ 1.348667, 1.394182, 1.483, 1.583978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.35, "volume": 398699129, "typical_volume": 243768431.8, "trend": 1.708, "fair_value": 1.819615, "relative_strength": -27.827958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.216339, "energy": 60.253251, "activity_lines": [ 1.346, 1.377818, 1.46181, 1.559462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.34, "volume": 271669131, "typical_volume": 242361823.45, "trend": 1.677333, "fair_value": 1.817564, "relative_strength": -27.897482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.071873, "energy": 56.114312, "activity_lines": [ 1.345333, 1.364909, 1.442524, 1.53572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.42, "volume": 309372054, "typical_volume": 246637633.6, "trend": 1.654, "fair_value": 1.815962, "relative_strength": -21.65942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.598884, "energy": 43.548754, "activity_lines": [ 1.370667, 1.37, 1.433333, 1.519118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 244062921, "typical_volume": 243823128.25, "trend": 1.632333, "fair_value": 1.813269, "relative_strength": -25.381494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.669261, "energy": 35.125163, "activity_lines": [ 1.386667, 1.373818, 1.42519, 1.503376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }