{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eba3f470-3fe9-4965-b3b3-c531e4df2e7f", "symbol": "AVW", "name": "Avira Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.261, "architecture_energy": 64.451, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.197, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.39, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 68.98, "downward_expansion": 87.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008018, 0.008557, 0.009206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.010083, "distance_from_trend": -0.305785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.599633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.276425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.363706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.305785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.599633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.762198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5322904, "relative_activity": 1.188701, "balance": 11.762198, "dry_up": 0.487653, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17033, "annualized_volatility": 0.877078, "from_high_reference": -0.65, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010083, "fair_value_reference": 0.017484, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.01877, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049447, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.303795, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.452273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.488078, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1012541.2, "trend": 0.052333, "fair_value": 0.100256, "relative_strength": -32.146366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.730411, "energy": 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-24.492216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.266633, "energy": 58.489096, "activity_lines": [ 0.0088, 0.009064, 0.009483, 0.010035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.008, "volume": 2361637, "typical_volume": 6213497.7, "trend": 0.01045, "fair_value": 0.018311, "relative_strength": -24.275553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.934365, "energy": 56.057169, "activity_lines": [ 0.0085, 0.008836, 0.009262, 0.009873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.008, "volume": 408860, "typical_volume": 5126352.55, "trend": 0.010383, "fair_value": 0.018106, "relative_strength": -24.329034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.858851, "energy": 69.389901, "activity_lines": [ 0.008267, 0.008645, 0.009064, 0.009715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.009, "volume": 2052605, "typical_volume": 5061048.85, "trend": 0.010317, "fair_value": 0.017907, "relative_strength": -14.930509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.829864, "energy": 50.958423, "activity_lines": [ 0.0084, 0.008655, 0.008995, 0.009626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 950312, "typical_volume": 4807377.7, "trend": 0.010183, "fair_value": 0.017696, "relative_strength": -35.312913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.828087, "energy": 64.798404, "activity_lines": [ 0.007933, 0.0083, 0.008764, 0.009412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 5322904, "typical_volume": 4477915.95, "trend": 0.010083, "fair_value": 0.017484, "relative_strength": -37.276425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.26127, "energy": 64.451224, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008018, 0.008557, 0.009206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }